Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose...

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Autores principales:	Poncela, Pilar, Guerrero, Víctor, Islas C., Alejandro, Rodríguez, Julio, Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío
Formato:	Texto
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	2014
Materias:	INFLACION PROYECCIONES ECONOMICAS ENCUESTAS INFLATION ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS SURVEYS
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/11362/37421
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id	oai-11362-37421
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai-11362-374212020-03-06T16:50:27Z Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys Poncela, Pilar Guerrero, Víctor Islas C., Alejandro Rodríguez, Julio Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío INFLACION PROYECCIONES ECONOMICAS ENCUESTAS INFLATION ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS SURVEYS We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one. 2014-12-10T13:07:37Z 2014-12-10T13:07:37Z 2014-08 Texto Sección o Parte de un Documento http://hdl.handle.net/11362/37421 LC/G.2614-P 5 en CEPAL Review CEPAL Review 113 .pdf application/pdf MEXICO MEXICO
institution	Cepal
collection	Cepal
language	English
topic	INFLACION PROYECCIONES ECONOMICAS ENCUESTAS INFLATION ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS SURVEYS
spellingShingle	INFLACION PROYECCIONES ECONOMICAS ENCUESTAS INFLATION ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS SURVEYS Poncela, Pilar Guerrero, Víctor Islas C., Alejandro Rodríguez, Julio Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys
description	We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one.
format	Texto
author	Poncela, Pilar Guerrero, Víctor Islas C., Alejandro Rodríguez, Julio Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío
author_facet	Poncela, Pilar Guerrero, Víctor Islas C., Alejandro Rodríguez, Julio Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío
author_sort	Poncela, Pilar
title	Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys
title_short	Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys
title_full	Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys
title_fullStr	Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys
title_full_unstemmed	Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys
title_sort	mexico: combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys
publishDate	2014
url	http://hdl.handle.net/11362/37421
work_keys_str_mv	AT poncelapilar mexicocombiningmonthlyinflationpredictionsfromsurveys AT guerrerovictor mexicocombiningmonthlyinflationpredictionsfromsurveys AT islascalejandro mexicocombiningmonthlyinflationpredictionsfromsurveys AT rodriguezjulio mexicocombiningmonthlyinflationpredictionsfromsurveys AT sanchezmangasrocio mexicocombiningmonthlyinflationpredictionsfromsurveys
_version_	1718438084961370112

Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

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