The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses
As predicted in the first bulletin, produced jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO), the impact of the economic crisis continued to be felt in Latin America and the Caribbean during the second quarter of 2009....
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ECLAC
2015
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English |
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EMPLEO CRISIS ECONOMICA MERCADO DE TRABAJO POLITICA DE EMPLEO INVERSIONES SECTOR PUBLICO PROGRAMAS DE ACCION ESTADISTICAS DEL EMPLEO EMPLOYMENT ECONOMIC CRISIS LABOUR MARKET EMPLOYMENT POLICY INVESTMENTS PUBLIC SECTOR PROGRAMMES OF ACTION EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS |
| spellingShingle |
EMPLEO CRISIS ECONOMICA MERCADO DE TRABAJO POLITICA DE EMPLEO INVERSIONES SECTOR PUBLICO PROGRAMAS DE ACCION ESTADISTICAS DEL EMPLEO EMPLOYMENT ECONOMIC CRISIS LABOUR MARKET EMPLOYMENT POLICY INVESTMENTS PUBLIC SECTOR PROGRAMMES OF ACTION EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses |
| description |
As predicted in the first bulletin, produced jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin
America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO),
the impact of the economic crisis continued to be felt in Latin America and the Caribbean
during the second quarter of 2009. Regional exports of goods and services contracted in
response to sluggish demand on international markets, while remittances and foreign direct
investment flows continued to fall, credit lost its buoyancy and the total wage bill diminished,
owing mainly to job losses. As a result, the growth forecasts of many countries had to be
adjusted downwards. Since the end of 2008, the countries of the region had started to
implement countercyclical policies —albeit with significant differences— in an effort to use
public spending to counter flagging investment and consumer-spending levels and boost
aggregate demand.
In this second bulletin, ECLAC and ILO show how the impact of the crisis has deepened
in labour markets in the region in the first half of the year and examine existing options and
the outcome of public-infrastructure and emergency employment programmes designed to
mitigate the impact of the crisis on the labour market.
The unemployment rate has risen in practically all countries compared with the previous
year and this situation worsened further in the second quarter, when urban unemployment
exceeded the rate of the corresponding period in 2008 by 1 percentage point (to stand at
8.5%, up from 7.5%), while in the first quarter, the variation was 0.6 of a percentage point.
Labour indicators also point to an increase in informality, a decline in employment with social
protection and a decrease in full-time employment.
Labour-market trends observed in the first half-year, together with the forecast for
a 1.9% decline in regional GDP in 2009, suggest that the average annual rate of urban
unemployment in the region will be close to 8.5%. This forecast is slightly less pessimistic
than the estimate given in the first bulletin; this is attributable to the fall in the participation
rate in the first half-year to levels that are expected to remain low for the rest of the year.
Without this reduction in the labour supply, due largely to the “discouragement effect”, the
annual average urban unemployment rate would stand at between 8.8% and 8.9%. Thus,
the open urban unemployment figure would increase by 2.5 million and if the “discouraged
job-seekers” are included, then the number of additional persons not finding a niche in the
urban labour market would climb to 3.2 million. In the region, as in the rest of the world, there are signs that
the crisis may have reached bottom in the middle of the year. In
many countries, production levels have ceased their decline and
there are indications of an incipient recovery leading to cautious
optimism that there may be a moderate upturn in labour markets
in the fourth quarter. The pace of recovery will vary from one
country to the next and is expected to be gradual at best.
Even with the return to a growth path, there should be
no illusion that the labour problems will immediately disappear.
First, the recovery in employment is expected to lag behind the
upturn in economic activity. Second, since economic growth is
likely to remain moderate in the short term and well below the
rates recorded between late 2003 and mid-2008, demand for
labour and consequently the generation of good-quality jobs
will continue to be weak. Thus, countries should not relax their
efforts to defend and create decent jobs, but rather should take
steps to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of available
instruments. In this way, the region will be in a better position
not only to confront the challenges of economic recovery, but
also to strengthen the foundations for social inclusion and for
advancing under more favourable conditions towards fulfilment
of the Millennium Development Goals. |
| author2 |
NU. CEPAL |
| author_facet |
NU. CEPAL |
| format |
Texto |
| title |
The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses |
| title_short |
The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses |
| title_full |
The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses |
| title_fullStr |
The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses |
| title_sort |
employment situation in latin america and the caribbean: crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses |
| publisher |
ECLAC |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11362/37597 |
| _version_ |
1718435476819410944 |
| spelling |
oai-11362-375972020-03-06T16:50:27Z The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis in the labour markets and countercyclical responses NU. CEPAL OIT EMPLEO CRISIS ECONOMICA MERCADO DE TRABAJO POLITICA DE EMPLEO INVERSIONES SECTOR PUBLICO PROGRAMAS DE ACCION ESTADISTICAS DEL EMPLEO EMPLOYMENT ECONOMIC CRISIS LABOUR MARKET EMPLOYMENT POLICY INVESTMENTS PUBLIC SECTOR PROGRAMMES OF ACTION EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS As predicted in the first bulletin, produced jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO), the impact of the economic crisis continued to be felt in Latin America and the Caribbean during the second quarter of 2009. Regional exports of goods and services contracted in response to sluggish demand on international markets, while remittances and foreign direct investment flows continued to fall, credit lost its buoyancy and the total wage bill diminished, owing mainly to job losses. As a result, the growth forecasts of many countries had to be adjusted downwards. Since the end of 2008, the countries of the region had started to implement countercyclical policies —albeit with significant differences— in an effort to use public spending to counter flagging investment and consumer-spending levels and boost aggregate demand. In this second bulletin, ECLAC and ILO show how the impact of the crisis has deepened in labour markets in the region in the first half of the year and examine existing options and the outcome of public-infrastructure and emergency employment programmes designed to mitigate the impact of the crisis on the labour market. The unemployment rate has risen in practically all countries compared with the previous year and this situation worsened further in the second quarter, when urban unemployment exceeded the rate of the corresponding period in 2008 by 1 percentage point (to stand at 8.5%, up from 7.5%), while in the first quarter, the variation was 0.6 of a percentage point. Labour indicators also point to an increase in informality, a decline in employment with social protection and a decrease in full-time employment. Labour-market trends observed in the first half-year, together with the forecast for a 1.9% decline in regional GDP in 2009, suggest that the average annual rate of urban unemployment in the region will be close to 8.5%. This forecast is slightly less pessimistic than the estimate given in the first bulletin; this is attributable to the fall in the participation rate in the first half-year to levels that are expected to remain low for the rest of the year. Without this reduction in the labour supply, due largely to the “discouragement effect”, the annual average urban unemployment rate would stand at between 8.8% and 8.9%. Thus, the open urban unemployment figure would increase by 2.5 million and if the “discouraged job-seekers” are included, then the number of additional persons not finding a niche in the urban labour market would climb to 3.2 million. In the region, as in the rest of the world, there are signs that the crisis may have reached bottom in the middle of the year. In many countries, production levels have ceased their decline and there are indications of an incipient recovery leading to cautious optimism that there may be a moderate upturn in labour markets in the fourth quarter. The pace of recovery will vary from one country to the next and is expected to be gradual at best. Even with the return to a growth path, there should be no illusion that the labour problems will immediately disappear. First, the recovery in employment is expected to lag behind the upturn in economic activity. Second, since economic growth is likely to remain moderate in the short term and well below the rates recorded between late 2003 and mid-2008, demand for labour and consequently the generation of good-quality jobs will continue to be weak. Thus, countries should not relax their efforts to defend and create decent jobs, but rather should take steps to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of available instruments. In this way, the region will be in a better position not only to confront the challenges of economic recovery, but also to strengthen the foundations for social inclusion and for advancing under more favourable conditions towards fulfilment of the Millennium Development Goals. 2015-01-13T19:46:50Z 2015-01-13T19:46:50Z 2009-09 Texto Documento Completo http://hdl.handle.net/11362/37597 en ECLAC-ILO Bulletin 2 .pdf application/pdf AMERICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ECLAC ILO |