The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile
This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the...
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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Texto |
| Lenguaje: | English |
| Publicado: |
2015
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/11362/39619 |
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| Sumario: | This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the findings of the recent international literature: the predictive power of the activity measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. This weak predictive contribution is robust to the use of final and real-time data. |
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