The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile

This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the...

Description complète

Enregistré dans:
Détails bibliographiques
Auteurs principaux: Pincheira Brown, Pablo, Rubio Hurtado, Hernán
Format: Texto
Langue:English
Publié: 2015
Sujets:
Accès en ligne:http://hdl.handle.net/11362/39619
Tags: Ajouter un tag
Pas de tags, Soyez le premier à ajouter un tag!
Description
Résumé:This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the findings of the recent international literature: the predictive power of the activity measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. This weak predictive contribution is robust to the use of final and real-time data.