The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries

The importance of sound and accurate early estimates of economic activity is of utmost importance to national economic authorities at the time of the decision-making process, and to the various agents involved in the economic analysis and follow up of the short-term economic prospects. In this conte...

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Autor principal:	Manuelito, Sandra
Formato:	Texto
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	ECLAC 2017
Materias:	ANALISIS ECONOMICO INDICADORES ECONOMICOS PRONOSTICOS ECONOMICOS MODELOS MATEMATICOS ESTUDIOS DE CASOS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC FORECASTS MATHEMATICAL MODELS CASE STUDIES
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/11362/41956
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spelling	oai-11362-419562020-11-17T01:15:48Z The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries Manuelito, Sandra ANALISIS ECONOMICO INDICADORES ECONOMICOS PRONOSTICOS ECONOMICOS MODELOS MATEMATICOS ESTUDIOS DE CASOS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC FORECASTS MATHEMATICAL MODELS CASE STUDIES The importance of sound and accurate early estimates of economic activity is of utmost importance to national economic authorities at the time of the decision-making process, and to the various agents involved in the economic analysis and follow up of the short-term economic prospects. In this context, the availability of short-term forecasts for quarterly GDP growth rates becomes highly relevant. In Latin America and the Caribbean an increasing amount of countries is producing high frequency economic data, and there has been an increasing interest by national authorities to use this data to improve economic analyses and short-term economic forecasts. This article discusses the use of the now casting methodology applied to Latin American and Caribbean countries with the objective of generating more accurate quarterly GDP growth forecasts. The results show that, for the short-term, this methodology produces accurate and reliable estimates although results at the country level depend very much on the amount and quality of the data available, as well as on its timeliness. Abstract .-- Introduction .-- I. The use of high frequency indicators in short-term economic analysis and forecasting in Latin America and Caribbean countries .-- II. The empirical models .-- III. Usefulness, scope and challenges in the use of these models in the Latin American and Caribbean context .-- Conclusions. 2017-07-11T20:01:58Z 2017-07-11T20:01:58Z 2017-06 Texto Documento Completo http://hdl.handle.net/11362/41956 LC/TS.2017/61 en Serie Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 188 .pdf application/pdf AMERICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ECLAC
institution	Cepal
collection	Cepal
language	English
topic	ANALISIS ECONOMICO INDICADORES ECONOMICOS PRONOSTICOS ECONOMICOS MODELOS MATEMATICOS ESTUDIOS DE CASOS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC FORECASTS MATHEMATICAL MODELS CASE STUDIES
spellingShingle	ANALISIS ECONOMICO INDICADORES ECONOMICOS PRONOSTICOS ECONOMICOS MODELOS MATEMATICOS ESTUDIOS DE CASOS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECONOMIC FORECASTS MATHEMATICAL MODELS CASE STUDIES Manuelito, Sandra The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries
description	The importance of sound and accurate early estimates of economic activity is of utmost importance to national economic authorities at the time of the decision-making process, and to the various agents involved in the economic analysis and follow up of the short-term economic prospects. In this context, the availability of short-term forecasts for quarterly GDP growth rates becomes highly relevant. In Latin America and the Caribbean an increasing amount of countries is producing high frequency economic data, and there has been an increasing interest by national authorities to use this data to improve economic analyses and short-term economic forecasts. This article discusses the use of the now casting methodology applied to Latin American and Caribbean countries with the objective of generating more accurate quarterly GDP growth forecasts. The results show that, for the short-term, this methodology produces accurate and reliable estimates although results at the country level depend very much on the amount and quality of the data available, as well as on its timeliness.
format	Texto
author	Manuelito, Sandra
author_facet	Manuelito, Sandra
author_sort	Manuelito, Sandra
title	The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries
title_short	The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries
title_full	The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries
title_fullStr	The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries
title_full_unstemmed	The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries
title_sort	use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: the case of latin american and caribbean countries
publisher	ECLAC
publishDate	2017
url	http://hdl.handle.net/11362/41956
work_keys_str_mv	AT manuelitosandra theuseofhighfrequencyindicatorsinshorttermforecastingmodelsthecaseoflatinamericanandcaribbeancountries AT manuelitosandra useofhighfrequencyindicatorsinshorttermforecastingmodelsthecaseoflatinamericanandcaribbeancountries
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The use of high-frequency indicators in short-term forecasting models: The case of Latin American and Caribbean countries

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