Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis

This article analyses Brazil’s recent inflation dynamic, considering different expectations environments within the New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework, to observe how the potential for discretionary behaviour by the monetary authority can interfere in economic agents’ forward-looking expectation...

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Autores principales:	Arruda, Elano Ferreira, Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda, Castelar, Ivan
Formato:	Texto
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	2018
Materias:	CONDICIONES ECONOMICAS CICLOS ECONOMICOS INFLACION ANALISIS ECONOMICO MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS BUSINESS CYCLES INFLATION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC MODELS
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/11362/43955
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spelling	oai-11362-439552020-03-06T16:50:27Z Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis Arruda, Elano Ferreira Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda Castelar, Ivan CONDICIONES ECONOMICAS CICLOS ECONOMICOS INFLACION ANALISIS ECONOMICO MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS BUSINESS CYCLES INFLATION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC MODELS This article analyses Brazil’s recent inflation dynamic, considering different expectations environments within the New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework, to observe how the potential for discretionary behaviour by the monetary authority can interfere in economic agents’ forward-looking expectations, and how that interference can affect the way inflation responds to its inertial component and to business-cycle fluctuations. To that end, the study estimates the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid version, using the heteroscedasticity-and-autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) estimator of the generalized method of moments (GMM). The results suggest that, when economic agents possess lower degrees of foresight, inflation will be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations the larger is its inertial component. 2018-08-15T17:54:37Z 2018-08-15T17:54:37Z 2018-04 Texto Sección o Parte de un Documento http://hdl.handle.net/11362/43955 LC/PUB.2018/5-P 7 en CEPAL Review CEPAL Review 124 .pdf application/pdf BRASIL BRAZIL
institution	Cepal
collection	Cepal
language	English
topic	CONDICIONES ECONOMICAS CICLOS ECONOMICOS INFLACION ANALISIS ECONOMICO MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS BUSINESS CYCLES INFLATION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC MODELS
spellingShingle	CONDICIONES ECONOMICAS CICLOS ECONOMICOS INFLACION ANALISIS ECONOMICO MODELOS ECONOMETRICOS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS BUSINESS CYCLES INFLATION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC MODELS Arruda, Elano Ferreira Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda Castelar, Ivan Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis
description	This article analyses Brazil’s recent inflation dynamic, considering different expectations environments within the New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework, to observe how the potential for discretionary behaviour by the monetary authority can interfere in economic agents’ forward-looking expectations, and how that interference can affect the way inflation responds to its inertial component and to business-cycle fluctuations. To that end, the study estimates the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid version, using the heteroscedasticity-and-autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) estimator of the generalized method of moments (GMM). The results suggest that, when economic agents possess lower degrees of foresight, inflation will be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations the larger is its inertial component.
format	Texto
author	Arruda, Elano Ferreira Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda Castelar, Ivan
author_facet	Arruda, Elano Ferreira Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda Castelar, Ivan
author_sort	Arruda, Elano Ferreira
title	Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis
title_short	Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis
title_full	Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis
title_fullStr	Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis
title_full_unstemmed	Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis
title_sort	business cycles, expectations and inflation in brazil: a new-keynesian phillips curve analysis
publishDate	2018
url	http://hdl.handle.net/11362/43955
work_keys_str_mv	AT arrudaelanoferreira businesscyclesexpectationsandinflationinbrazilanewkeynesianphillipscurveanalysis AT oliveiradeolivindomariathalitaarruda businesscyclesexpectationsandinflationinbrazilanewkeynesianphillipscurveanalysis AT castelarivan businesscyclesexpectationsandinflationinbrazilanewkeynesianphillipscurveanalysis
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Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis

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