Trends, cycles, and convergence
Determining turning points in the business cycle is a difficult problem. Making sensible predictions concerning the growth path of an economy in the medium or long term is even harder. This paper explores what can be achieved by analysing and modeling time series observations on gross domestic produ...
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Banco Central de Chile
2019
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oai-20.500.12580-36862021-04-24T10:33:49Z Trends, cycles, and convergence Harvey, Andrew C. CICLOS ECONÓMICOS DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO Determining turning points in the business cycle is a difficult problem. Making sensible predictions concerning the growth path of an economy in the medium or long term is even harder. This paper explores what can be achieved by analysing and modeling time series observations on gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic time series. Separating out trends and cycles is fundamental to a good deal of economic analysis. It is often done by applying filters in a rather arbitrary fashion. Thus the low-pass filter introduced by Hodrick and Prescott (1997) is frequently used to remove trends in situations in which it can create serious distortions (see Harvey and Jaeger, 1993, Cogley and Nason, 1995). The band-pass filter, recently introduced by Baxter and King (1999), can also result in distortions (see Murray, 2002). 2019-11-01T00:01:28Z 2019-11-01T00:01:28Z 2002 Artículo 956-7421-137 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12580/3686 eng Series on Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies, no. 6 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Chile http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/cl/ .pdf Sección o Parte de un Documento p. 221-250 application/pdf Banco Central de Chile |
| institution |
Banco Central |
| collection |
Banco Central |
| language |
eng |
| topic |
CICLOS ECONÓMICOS DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO |
| spellingShingle |
CICLOS ECONÓMICOS DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO Harvey, Andrew C. Trends, cycles, and convergence |
| description |
Determining turning points in the business cycle is a difficult problem. Making sensible predictions concerning the growth path of an economy in the medium or long term is even harder. This paper explores what can be achieved by analysing and modeling time series observations on gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic time series. Separating out trends and cycles is fundamental to a good deal of economic analysis. It is often done by applying filters in a rather arbitrary fashion. Thus the low-pass filter introduced by Hodrick and Prescott (1997) is frequently used to remove trends in situations in which it can create serious distortions (see Harvey and Jaeger, 1993, Cogley and Nason, 1995). The band-pass filter, recently introduced by Baxter and King (1999), can also result in distortions (see Murray, 2002). |
| format |
Artículo |
| author |
Harvey, Andrew C. |
| author_facet |
Harvey, Andrew C. |
| author_sort |
Harvey, Andrew C. |
| title |
Trends, cycles, and convergence |
| title_short |
Trends, cycles, and convergence |
| title_full |
Trends, cycles, and convergence |
| title_fullStr |
Trends, cycles, and convergence |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Trends, cycles, and convergence |
| title_sort |
trends, cycles, and convergence |
| publisher |
Banco Central de Chile |
| publishDate |
2019 |
| url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12580/3686 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT harveyandrewc trendscyclesandconvergence |
| _version_ |
1718346200340496384 |