The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning

Abstract Population-level data have suggested that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may lessen the severity of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) prompting clinical trials in this area. Some reports have demonstrated conflicting results. We performed a robust, ecologic analysis comparing COV...

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Autores principales:	Nathan A. Brooks, Ankur Puri, Sanya Garg, Swapnika Nag, Jacomo Corbo, Anas El Turabi, Noshir Kaka, Rodney W. Zemmel, Paul K. Hegarty, Ashish M. Kamat
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0010f1877da5476b965ccacf085aa4f2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0010f1877da5476b965ccacf085aa4f22021-12-02T14:01:24ZThe association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning10.1038/s41598-020-80787-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0010f1877da5476b965ccacf085aa4f22021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80787-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Population-level data have suggested that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may lessen the severity of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) prompting clinical trials in this area. Some reports have demonstrated conflicting results. We performed a robust, ecologic analysis comparing COVID-19 related mortality (CRM) between strictly selected countries based on BCG vaccination program status utilizing publicly available databases and machine learning methods to define the association between active BCG vaccination programs and CRM. Validation was performed using linear regression and country-specific modeling. CRM was lower for the majority of countries with a BCG vaccination policy for at least the preceding 15 years (BCG15). CRM increased significantly for each increase in the percent population over age 65. A higher total population of a country and BCG15 were significantly associated with improved CRM. There was a consistent association between countries with a BCG vaccination for the preceding 15 years, but not other vaccination programs, and CRM. BCG vaccination programs continued to be associated with decreased CRM even for populations < 40 years old where CRM events are less frequent.Nathan A. BrooksAnkur PuriSanya GargSwapnika NagJacomo CorboAnas El TurabiNoshir KakaRodney W. ZemmelPaul K. HegartyAshish M. KamatNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Nathan A. Brooks Ankur Puri Sanya Garg Swapnika Nag Jacomo Corbo Anas El Turabi Noshir Kaka Rodney W. Zemmel Paul K. Hegarty Ashish M. Kamat The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning
description	Abstract Population-level data have suggested that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may lessen the severity of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) prompting clinical trials in this area. Some reports have demonstrated conflicting results. We performed a robust, ecologic analysis comparing COVID-19 related mortality (CRM) between strictly selected countries based on BCG vaccination program status utilizing publicly available databases and machine learning methods to define the association between active BCG vaccination programs and CRM. Validation was performed using linear regression and country-specific modeling. CRM was lower for the majority of countries with a BCG vaccination policy for at least the preceding 15 years (BCG15). CRM increased significantly for each increase in the percent population over age 65. A higher total population of a country and BCG15 were significantly associated with improved CRM. There was a consistent association between countries with a BCG vaccination for the preceding 15 years, but not other vaccination programs, and CRM. BCG vaccination programs continued to be associated with decreased CRM even for populations < 40 years old where CRM events are less frequent.
format	article
author	Nathan A. Brooks Ankur Puri Sanya Garg Swapnika Nag Jacomo Corbo Anas El Turabi Noshir Kaka Rodney W. Zemmel Paul K. Hegarty Ashish M. Kamat
author_facet	Nathan A. Brooks Ankur Puri Sanya Garg Swapnika Nag Jacomo Corbo Anas El Turabi Noshir Kaka Rodney W. Zemmel Paul K. Hegarty Ashish M. Kamat
author_sort	Nathan A. Brooks
title	The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning
title_short	The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning
title_full	The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning
title_fullStr	The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning
title_full_unstemmed	The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning
title_sort	association of coronavirus disease-19 mortality and prior bacille calmette-guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0010f1877da5476b965ccacf085aa4f2
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The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning

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