Estimating climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models

Global climate change threatens the range and resilience of species in the major biodiversity, particularly those in mountain regions. As the climatic conditions at high altitudes becomes suitable for colonization, many alpine plants experiences novel competitive pressures along as well as range-shi...

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Autores principales:	Santosh Kumar Rana, Hum Kala Rana, Dong Luo, Hang Sun
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Biomod2 Climate change Ensemble species distribution modelling Incarvillea “Nowhere to go” Range shifts Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/00744da082a046cdb3704e6a31762e17
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:00744da082a046cdb3704e6a31762e172021-12-01T04:35:57ZEstimating climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107127https://doaj.org/article/00744da082a046cdb3704e6a31762e172021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X20310669https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XGlobal climate change threatens the range and resilience of species in the major biodiversity, particularly those in mountain regions. As the climatic conditions at high altitudes becomes suitable for colonization, many alpine plants experiences novel competitive pressures along as well as range-shift limitations along alpine peaks. To estimate climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ scenarios, we modelled habitat suitability for the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. and its subgenera using a multi-model median (MMM) ensemble species distribution modelling (eSDM). This model incorporated 13 climatic and other 15 environmental variables with n = 542 spatially rarefied occurrence records of the Incarvillea species. Meanwhile, contributions of environmental factors to ecological divergence were statistically verified using principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminant function analysis (DFA). Finally, the geographic range was projected under n = 4 different climatic scenarios and analysed for plausible range shifts. The niche divergence test suggested larger ecological differentiation within the genus and subgenera by climatic rather than environmental variables. In response to climatic factors, the consensus projection resulted in a wide range of suitability for Incarvillea across the three foremost Biodiversity hotspots of Asia. The spatio-temporal projection of the Incarvillea species in the Hengduan Mountains expand their range north-westward in future without diminishing their range size under climate warming, but not promisingly occupied niche range as anticipated by the “Nowhere to go” hypothesis. Therefore, a better understanding of the potential range of the genus Incarvillea and its subgenera envisioned through solely climate-induced variables might provide better insights to biogeographers in understanding geographic range amalgamating climate change adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the biodiversity hotspots.Santosh Kumar RanaHum Kala RanaDong LuoHang SunElsevierarticleBiomod2Climate changeEnsemble species distribution modellingIncarvillea“Nowhere to go”Range shiftsEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 121, Iss , Pp 107127- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biomod2 Climate change Ensemble species distribution modelling Incarvillea “Nowhere to go” Range shifts Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Biomod2 Climate change Ensemble species distribution modelling Incarvillea “Nowhere to go” Range shifts Ecology QH540-549.5 Santosh Kumar Rana Hum Kala Rana Dong Luo Hang Sun Estimating climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models
description	Global climate change threatens the range and resilience of species in the major biodiversity, particularly those in mountain regions. As the climatic conditions at high altitudes becomes suitable for colonization, many alpine plants experiences novel competitive pressures along as well as range-shift limitations along alpine peaks. To estimate climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ scenarios, we modelled habitat suitability for the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. and its subgenera using a multi-model median (MMM) ensemble species distribution modelling (eSDM). This model incorporated 13 climatic and other 15 environmental variables with n = 542 spatially rarefied occurrence records of the Incarvillea species. Meanwhile, contributions of environmental factors to ecological divergence were statistically verified using principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminant function analysis (DFA). Finally, the geographic range was projected under n = 4 different climatic scenarios and analysed for plausible range shifts. The niche divergence test suggested larger ecological differentiation within the genus and subgenera by climatic rather than environmental variables. In response to climatic factors, the consensus projection resulted in a wide range of suitability for Incarvillea across the three foremost Biodiversity hotspots of Asia. The spatio-temporal projection of the Incarvillea species in the Hengduan Mountains expand their range north-westward in future without diminishing their range size under climate warming, but not promisingly occupied niche range as anticipated by the “Nowhere to go” hypothesis. Therefore, a better understanding of the potential range of the genus Incarvillea and its subgenera envisioned through solely climate-induced variables might provide better insights to biogeographers in understanding geographic range amalgamating climate change adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the biodiversity hotspots.
format	article
author	Santosh Kumar Rana Hum Kala Rana Dong Luo Hang Sun
author_facet	Santosh Kumar Rana Hum Kala Rana Dong Luo Hang Sun
author_sort	Santosh Kumar Rana
title	Estimating climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models
title_short	Estimating climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models
title_full	Estimating climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models
title_fullStr	Estimating climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models
title_sort	estimating climate-induced ‘nowhere to go’ range shifts of the himalayan incarvillea juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/00744da082a046cdb3704e6a31762e17
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Estimating climate-induced ‘Nowhere to go’ range shifts of the Himalayan Incarvillea Juss. using multi-model median ensemble species distribution models

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