Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America

Abstract Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate’s respon...

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Autores principales:	Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Axel Timmermann, Matthew J. Widlansky, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Lowell Stott
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/008d91a340a44611b64c07333df87124
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:008d91a340a44611b64c07333df871242021-12-02T16:06:30ZMulti-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America10.1038/s41598-017-06869-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/008d91a340a44611b64c07333df871242017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06869-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate’s response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10–23 and 10–45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.Yoshimitsu ChikamotoAxel TimmermannMatthew J. WidlanskyMagdalena A. BalmasedaLowell StottNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yoshimitsu Chikamoto Axel Timmermann Matthew J. Widlansky Magdalena A. Balmaseda Lowell Stott Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America
description	Abstract Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate’s response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10–23 and 10–45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.
format	article
author	Yoshimitsu Chikamoto Axel Timmermann Matthew J. Widlansky Magdalena A. Balmaseda Lowell Stott
author_facet	Yoshimitsu Chikamoto Axel Timmermann Matthew J. Widlansky Magdalena A. Balmaseda Lowell Stott
author_sort	Yoshimitsu Chikamoto
title	Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America
title_short	Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America
title_full	Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America
title_fullStr	Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America
title_full_unstemmed	Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America
title_sort	multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern north america
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/008d91a340a44611b64c07333df87124
work_keys_str_mv	AT yoshimitsuchikamoto multiyearpredictabilityofclimatedroughtandwildfireinsouthwesternnorthamerica AT axeltimmermann multiyearpredictabilityofclimatedroughtandwildfireinsouthwesternnorthamerica AT matthewjwidlansky multiyearpredictabilityofclimatedroughtandwildfireinsouthwesternnorthamerica AT magdalenaabalmaseda multiyearpredictabilityofclimatedroughtandwildfireinsouthwesternnorthamerica AT lowellstott multiyearpredictabilityofclimatedroughtandwildfireinsouthwesternnorthamerica
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Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America

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