Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises

Abstract To ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40...

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Autores principales:	Gerardo Chowell, Sushma Dahal, Raquel Bono, Kenji Mizumoto
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/016f6ed8d5a84d8eb9dbf2c07c789606
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:016f6ed8d5a84d8eb9dbf2c07c7896062021-12-02T16:30:10ZHarnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises10.1038/s41598-021-95032-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/016f6ed8d5a84d8eb9dbf2c07c7896062021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95032-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract To ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test’s sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.Gerardo ChowellSushma DahalRaquel BonoKenji MizumotoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Gerardo Chowell Sushma Dahal Raquel Bono Kenji Mizumoto Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises
description	Abstract To ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test’s sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.
format	article
author	Gerardo Chowell Sushma Dahal Raquel Bono Kenji Mizumoto
author_facet	Gerardo Chowell Sushma Dahal Raquel Bono Kenji Mizumoto
author_sort	Gerardo Chowell
title	Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises
title_short	Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises
title_full	Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises
title_fullStr	Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises
title_full_unstemmed	Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises
title_sort	harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert covid-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/016f6ed8d5a84d8eb9dbf2c07c789606
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Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises

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