Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere.
Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the north...
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2013
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oai:doaj.org-article:01a801ff4e41428ba22c5adeae9f3d062021-11-18T08:52:56ZPhenological changes in the southern hemisphere.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0075514https://doaj.org/article/01a801ff4e41428ba22c5adeae9f3d062013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24098389/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.Lynda E ChambersRes AltweggChristophe BarbraudPhoebe BarnardLinda J BeaumontRobert J M CrawfordJoel M DurantLesley HughesMarie R KeatleyMatt LowPatricia C MorellatoElvira S PoloczanskaValeria RuoppoloRalph E T VanstreelsEric J WoehlerAnton C WolfaardtPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 10, p e75514 (2013) |
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| language |
EN |
| topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
| spellingShingle |
Medicine R Science Q Lynda E Chambers Res Altwegg Christophe Barbraud Phoebe Barnard Linda J Beaumont Robert J M Crawford Joel M Durant Lesley Hughes Marie R Keatley Matt Low Patricia C Morellato Elvira S Poloczanska Valeria Ruoppolo Ralph E T Vanstreels Eric J Woehler Anton C Wolfaardt Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere. |
| description |
Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Lynda E Chambers Res Altwegg Christophe Barbraud Phoebe Barnard Linda J Beaumont Robert J M Crawford Joel M Durant Lesley Hughes Marie R Keatley Matt Low Patricia C Morellato Elvira S Poloczanska Valeria Ruoppolo Ralph E T Vanstreels Eric J Woehler Anton C Wolfaardt |
| author_facet |
Lynda E Chambers Res Altwegg Christophe Barbraud Phoebe Barnard Linda J Beaumont Robert J M Crawford Joel M Durant Lesley Hughes Marie R Keatley Matt Low Patricia C Morellato Elvira S Poloczanska Valeria Ruoppolo Ralph E T Vanstreels Eric J Woehler Anton C Wolfaardt |
| author_sort |
Lynda E Chambers |
| title |
Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere. |
| title_short |
Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere. |
| title_full |
Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere. |
| title_fullStr |
Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere. |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere. |
| title_sort |
phenological changes in the southern hemisphere. |
| publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| publishDate |
2013 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/01a801ff4e41428ba22c5adeae9f3d06 |
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