Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR

Recent studies analyze the influence of rainfall on traffic crashes, indicating that precipitation intensity is an important factor, for modeling crashes occurrence. This research presents a relationship between daily-basis traffic crashes and precipitation, from 2014 to 2018, in a rural mountainou...

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Autores principales:	Leandro Canezin Guideli, André Lucas dos Reis Cuenca, Milena Arruda Silva, Larissa de Brum Passini
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN ES PT
Publicado:	Associação Nacional de Pesquisa e Ensino em Transportes (ANPET) 2021
Materias:	Traffic Crashes Precipitation Negative Binomial Serra do Mar Transportation engineering TA1001-1280
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0229f31228d944258aabfbc0d668f7d4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0229f31228d944258aabfbc0d668f7d42021-12-05T17:58:19ZRoad crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR 10.14295/transportes.v29i4.24982237-1346https://doaj.org/article/0229f31228d944258aabfbc0d668f7d42021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://revistatransportes.org.br/anpet/article/view/2498https://doaj.org/toc/2237-1346 Recent studies analyze the influence of rainfall on traffic crashes, indicating that precipitation intensity is an important factor, for modeling crashes occurrence. This research presents a relationship between daily-basis traffic crashes and precipitation, from 2014 to 2018, in a rural mountainous Brazilian Highway (BR-376/PR), where field rain gauges were used to obtain precipitation data. Data modeling considered a Negative Binomial regression for precipitation influence in crash frequency. Separate regression models were estimated to account for the rainfall effect in different seasons, and for different vehicle types. All models analyzed presented a positive relationship between daily rainfall intensity and daily crashes number. This can indicate that generally rainfall presence is a hazardous factor. Different critical seasons for rainfall influence were also highlighted, alerting for the possible necessity of distinct road safety policies concerning seasonality. Finally, for the vehicle type analysis, typically, rainfall seemed to have a greater effect in lighter vehicles. Moreover, results are useful for traffic control, in order to increase safety conditions. Leandro Canezin GuideliAndré Lucas dos Reis CuencaMilena Arruda SilvaLarissa de Brum PassiniAssociação Nacional de Pesquisa e Ensino em Transportes (ANPET)articleTraffic Crashes PrecipitationNegative BinomialSerra do MarTransportation engineeringTA1001-1280ENESPTTransportes, Vol 29, Iss 4 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN ES PT
topic	Traffic Crashes Precipitation Negative Binomial Serra do Mar Transportation engineering TA1001-1280
spellingShingle	Traffic Crashes Precipitation Negative Binomial Serra do Mar Transportation engineering TA1001-1280 Leandro Canezin Guideli André Lucas dos Reis Cuenca Milena Arruda Silva Larissa de Brum Passini Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR
description	Recent studies analyze the influence of rainfall on traffic crashes, indicating that precipitation intensity is an important factor, for modeling crashes occurrence. This research presents a relationship between daily-basis traffic crashes and precipitation, from 2014 to 2018, in a rural mountainous Brazilian Highway (BR-376/PR), where field rain gauges were used to obtain precipitation data. Data modeling considered a Negative Binomial regression for precipitation influence in crash frequency. Separate regression models were estimated to account for the rainfall effect in different seasons, and for different vehicle types. All models analyzed presented a positive relationship between daily rainfall intensity and daily crashes number. This can indicate that generally rainfall presence is a hazardous factor. Different critical seasons for rainfall influence were also highlighted, alerting for the possible necessity of distinct road safety policies concerning seasonality. Finally, for the vehicle type analysis, typically, rainfall seemed to have a greater effect in lighter vehicles. Moreover, results are useful for traffic control, in order to increase safety conditions.
format	article
author	Leandro Canezin Guideli André Lucas dos Reis Cuenca Milena Arruda Silva Larissa de Brum Passini
author_facet	Leandro Canezin Guideli André Lucas dos Reis Cuenca Milena Arruda Silva Larissa de Brum Passini
author_sort	Leandro Canezin Guideli
title	Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR
title_short	Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR
title_full	Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR
title_fullStr	Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR
title_full_unstemmed	Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR
title_sort	road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the brazilian mountainous highway br-376/pr
publisher	Associação Nacional de Pesquisa e Ensino em Transportes (ANPET)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0229f31228d944258aabfbc0d668f7d4
work_keys_str_mv	AT leandrocanezinguideli roadcrashesandfieldrainfalldatamathematicalmodelingforthebrazilianmountainoushighwaybr376pr AT andrelucasdosreiscuenca roadcrashesandfieldrainfalldatamathematicalmodelingforthebrazilianmountainoushighwaybr376pr AT milenaarrudasilva roadcrashesandfieldrainfalldatamathematicalmodelingforthebrazilianmountainoushighwaybr376pr AT larissadebrumpassini roadcrashesandfieldrainfalldatamathematicalmodelingforthebrazilianmountainoushighwaybr376pr
_version_	1718371218216714240

Road crashes and field rainfall data: mathematical modeling for the Brazilian mountainous highway BR-376/PR

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