Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?

Background: In 2015, the Medical Council of Canada increased the minimum pass level for the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part I, and students had a higher rate of failure than in previous years. The purpose of this study was to predict students at an increased odds of examinatio...

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Autores principales:	Janeve Desy, Sylvian Coderre, Pamela Veale, Kevin Busche, Wayne Woloschuk, Kevin McLaughlin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Canadian Medical Education Journal 2021
Materias:	medical education licensure examinations summative assessment remediation Education (General) L7-991 Medicine (General) R5-920
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0240be0890e5453b84b6d664c3dce081
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0240be0890e5453b84b6d664c3dce0812021-12-01T22:35:46ZCan we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?10.36834/cmej.681721923-1202https://doaj.org/article/0240be0890e5453b84b6d664c3dce0812021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/cmej/article/view/68172https://doaj.org/toc/1923-1202 Background: In 2015, the Medical Council of Canada increased the minimum pass level for the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part I, and students had a higher rate of failure than in previous years. The purpose of this study was to predict students at an increased odds of examination failure to allow for early, targeted interventions. Methods: We divided our dataset into a derivation cohort and two validation cohorts and used multiple logistic regression to predict licensing examination failure. We then performed receiver operating characteristics and a sensitivity analysis using different cutoffs for explanatory variables to identify the cutoff threshold with the best predictive value at identifying students at increased odds of failure. Results: After multivariate analysis, only pre-clerkship GPA was a significant independent predictor of failure (OR 0.76, 95% CI [0.66, 0.88], p < 0.001). The probability of failure increased steeply when the pre-clerkship GPA fell below 80% and 76% was found to be the most efficient cutoff for predicting failure (OR 9.37, 95% CI [3.08, 38.41]). Conclusions: Pre-clerkship performance can predict students at increased odds of licensing examination failure. Further studies are needed to explore whether early interventions for at-risk students alter their examination performance. Janeve DesySylvian CoderrePamela VealeKevin BuscheWayne WoloschukKevin McLaughlinCanadian Medical Education Journalarticlemedical educationlicensure examinationssummative assessmentremediationEducation (General)L7-991Medicine (General)R5-920ENCanadian Medical Education Journal (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	medical education licensure examinations summative assessment remediation Education (General) L7-991 Medicine (General) R5-920
spellingShingle	medical education licensure examinations summative assessment remediation Education (General) L7-991 Medicine (General) R5-920 Janeve Desy Sylvian Coderre Pamela Veale Kevin Busche Wayne Woloschuk Kevin McLaughlin Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?
description	Background: In 2015, the Medical Council of Canada increased the minimum pass level for the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part I, and students had a higher rate of failure than in previous years. The purpose of this study was to predict students at an increased odds of examination failure to allow for early, targeted interventions. Methods: We divided our dataset into a derivation cohort and two validation cohorts and used multiple logistic regression to predict licensing examination failure. We then performed receiver operating characteristics and a sensitivity analysis using different cutoffs for explanatory variables to identify the cutoff threshold with the best predictive value at identifying students at increased odds of failure. Results: After multivariate analysis, only pre-clerkship GPA was a significant independent predictor of failure (OR 0.76, 95% CI [0.66, 0.88], p < 0.001). The probability of failure increased steeply when the pre-clerkship GPA fell below 80% and 76% was found to be the most efficient cutoff for predicting failure (OR 9.37, 95% CI [3.08, 38.41]). Conclusions: Pre-clerkship performance can predict students at increased odds of licensing examination failure. Further studies are needed to explore whether early interventions for at-risk students alter their examination performance.
format	article
author	Janeve Desy Sylvian Coderre Pamela Veale Kevin Busche Wayne Woloschuk Kevin McLaughlin
author_facet	Janeve Desy Sylvian Coderre Pamela Veale Kevin Busche Wayne Woloschuk Kevin McLaughlin
author_sort	Janeve Desy
title	Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?
title_short	Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?
title_full	Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?
title_fullStr	Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?
title_full_unstemmed	Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?
title_sort	can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?
publisher	Canadian Medical Education Journal
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0240be0890e5453b84b6d664c3dce081
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Can we predict failure in licensure exams from medical students’ undergraduate academic performance?

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