A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast

This paper uses graph theoretical measures to analyse the relationship between street network usage, as well as other street- and area-level factors, and dissident Republican violence in Belfast. A multi-level statistical model is used. Specifically, we employ an observation-level random-effects (OL...

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Autores principales:	Zoe Marchment, Michael J. Frith, John Morrison, Paul Gill
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	geographic crime analysis spatial patterns of crime terrorism civil war insurgency Geography (General) G1-922
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/025764ed3aac454aa46aef4160b29fc3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:025764ed3aac454aa46aef4160b29fc32021-11-25T17:53:05ZA Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast10.3390/ijgi101107652220-9964https://doaj.org/article/025764ed3aac454aa46aef4160b29fc32021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/10/11/765https://doaj.org/toc/2220-9964This paper uses graph theoretical measures to analyse the relationship between street network usage, as well as other street- and area-level factors, and dissident Republican violence in Belfast. A multi-level statistical model is used. Specifically, we employ an observation-level random-effects (OLRE) Poisson regression and use variables at the street and area levels. Street- and area-level characteristics simultaneously influence where violent incidents occur. For every 10% change in the betweenness value of a street segment, the segment is expected to experience 1.32 times as many incidents. Police stations (IRR: 22.05), protestant churches (IRR: 6.19) and commercial premises (IRR: 1.44) on each street segment were also all found to significantly increase the expected number of attacks. At the small-area level, for every 10% change in the number of Catholic residents, the number of incidents is expected to be 4.45 times as many. The results indicate that along with other factors, the street network plays a role in shaping terrorist target selection. Streets that are more connected and more likely to be traversed will experience more incidents than those that are not. This has important practical implications for the policing of political violence in Northern Ireland generally and for shaping specific targeted interventions.Zoe MarchmentMichael J. FrithJohn MorrisonPaul GillMDPI AGarticlegeographic crime analysisspatial patterns of crimeterrorismcivil warinsurgencyGeography (General)G1-922ENISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, Vol 10, Iss 765, p 765 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	geographic crime analysis spatial patterns of crime terrorism civil war insurgency Geography (General) G1-922
spellingShingle	geographic crime analysis spatial patterns of crime terrorism civil war insurgency Geography (General) G1-922 Zoe Marchment Michael J. Frith John Morrison Paul Gill A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast
description	This paper uses graph theoretical measures to analyse the relationship between street network usage, as well as other street- and area-level factors, and dissident Republican violence in Belfast. A multi-level statistical model is used. Specifically, we employ an observation-level random-effects (OLRE) Poisson regression and use variables at the street and area levels. Street- and area-level characteristics simultaneously influence where violent incidents occur. For every 10% change in the betweenness value of a street segment, the segment is expected to experience 1.32 times as many incidents. Police stations (IRR: 22.05), protestant churches (IRR: 6.19) and commercial premises (IRR: 1.44) on each street segment were also all found to significantly increase the expected number of attacks. At the small-area level, for every 10% change in the number of Catholic residents, the number of incidents is expected to be 4.45 times as many. The results indicate that along with other factors, the street network plays a role in shaping terrorist target selection. Streets that are more connected and more likely to be traversed will experience more incidents than those that are not. This has important practical implications for the policing of political violence in Northern Ireland generally and for shaping specific targeted interventions.
format	article
author	Zoe Marchment Michael J. Frith John Morrison Paul Gill
author_facet	Zoe Marchment Michael J. Frith John Morrison Paul Gill
author_sort	Zoe Marchment
title	A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast
title_short	A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast
title_full	A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast
title_fullStr	A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast
title_full_unstemmed	A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast
title_sort	multi-level analysis of risky streets and neighbourhoods for dissident republican violence in belfast
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/025764ed3aac454aa46aef4160b29fc3
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A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast

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