Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community...

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Autores principales:	Hanmo Li, Mengyang Gu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/026a71cce6c846ac8e5a85d5aedad7c6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:026a71cce6c846ac8e5a85d5aedad7c62021-12-02T15:03:13ZRobust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties10.1038/s41598-021-90195-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/026a71cce6c846ac8e5a85d5aedad7c62021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90195-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $$5\%$$ 5 % of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $$39\%$$ 39 % (or 78 K, $$95\%$$ 95 % CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.Hanmo LiMengyang GuNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Hanmo Li Mengyang Gu Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties
description	Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $$5\%$$ 5 % of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $$39\%$$ 39 % (or 78 K, $$95\%$$ 95 % CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.
format	article
author	Hanmo Li Mengyang Gu
author_facet	Hanmo Li Mengyang Gu
author_sort	Hanmo Li
title	Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties
title_short	Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties
title_full	Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties
title_fullStr	Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties
title_full_unstemmed	Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties
title_sort	robust estimation of sars-cov-2 epidemic in us counties
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/026a71cce6c846ac8e5a85d5aedad7c6
work_keys_str_mv	AT hanmoli robustestimationofsarscov2epidemicinuscounties AT mengyanggu robustestimationofsarscov2epidemicinuscounties
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Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties

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