Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of species. However, the application of species-level SDMs often ignores intraspecific variation and can be problematic. The aim of the study was to incorporate intraspecific informat...

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Autores principales:	Percy Jinga, Ziyan Liao, Michael P. Nobis
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Biodiversity Climate change Ensemble model Subspecies Species distribution model Sclerocarya birrea Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0277c18b1b73463fac2a3e5571ba0e01
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0277c18b1b73463fac2a3e5571ba0e012021-11-14T04:33:21ZSpecies distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)2351-989410.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01908https://doaj.org/article/0277c18b1b73463fac2a3e5571ba0e012021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989421004583https://doaj.org/toc/2351-9894Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of species. However, the application of species-level SDMs often ignores intraspecific variation and can be problematic. The aim of the study was to incorporate intraspecific information into SDMs and compare predictions of subspecies- and species-level SDMs in a widespread African tree species, Sclerocarya birrea (marula). We used bioclimatic variables and terrain roughness index to calibrate nine algorithms in ‘biomod2’ platform. Ensemble models were built to predict the current and future suitable habitat of marula and separately its three subspecies, birrea, caffra and multifoliolata. Projections were made to 2041 − 2060 and 2081 − 2100 under three general circulation models and two shared socio-economic pathways. Results showed an expansion of the suitable habitat of marula as well as subspp. birrea and caffra in the two future time periods. The suitable habitat of subsp. multifoliolata, in contrast, contracted in future. Our results show that species-level SDMs may fail to detect climate change risks for intraspecific taxa, and consequently leading to under- or overestimation of the impacts of climate change. Incorporation of intraspecific variation into SDMs improves predictions of the impact of climate change and helps to identify appropriate conservation and management options.Percy JingaZiyan LiaoMichael P. NobisElsevierarticleBiodiversityClimate changeEnsemble modelSubspeciesSpecies distribution modelSclerocarya birreaEcologyQH540-549.5ENGlobal Ecology and Conservation, Vol 32, Iss , Pp e01908- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biodiversity Climate change Ensemble model Subspecies Species distribution model Sclerocarya birrea Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Biodiversity Climate change Ensemble model Subspecies Species distribution model Sclerocarya birrea Ecology QH540-549.5 Percy Jinga Ziyan Liao Michael P. Nobis Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)
description	Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of species. However, the application of species-level SDMs often ignores intraspecific variation and can be problematic. The aim of the study was to incorporate intraspecific information into SDMs and compare predictions of subspecies- and species-level SDMs in a widespread African tree species, Sclerocarya birrea (marula). We used bioclimatic variables and terrain roughness index to calibrate nine algorithms in ‘biomod2’ platform. Ensemble models were built to predict the current and future suitable habitat of marula and separately its three subspecies, birrea, caffra and multifoliolata. Projections were made to 2041 − 2060 and 2081 − 2100 under three general circulation models and two shared socio-economic pathways. Results showed an expansion of the suitable habitat of marula as well as subspp. birrea and caffra in the two future time periods. The suitable habitat of subsp. multifoliolata, in contrast, contracted in future. Our results show that species-level SDMs may fail to detect climate change risks for intraspecific taxa, and consequently leading to under- or overestimation of the impacts of climate change. Incorporation of intraspecific variation into SDMs improves predictions of the impact of climate change and helps to identify appropriate conservation and management options.
format	article
author	Percy Jinga Ziyan Liao Michael P. Nobis
author_facet	Percy Jinga Ziyan Liao Michael P. Nobis
author_sort	Percy Jinga
title	Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)
title_short	Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)
title_full	Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)
title_fullStr	Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)
title_full_unstemmed	Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)
title_sort	species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (sclerocarya birrea, anacardiaceae)
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0277c18b1b73463fac2a3e5571ba0e01
work_keys_str_mv	AT percyjinga speciesdistributionmodelingthatoverlooksintraspecificvariationisinadequateforproperconservationofmarulasclerocaryabirreaanacardiaceae AT ziyanliao speciesdistributionmodelingthatoverlooksintraspecificvariationisinadequateforproperconservationofmarulasclerocaryabirreaanacardiaceae AT michaelpnobis speciesdistributionmodelingthatoverlooksintraspecificvariationisinadequateforproperconservationofmarulasclerocaryabirreaanacardiaceae
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Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)

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