"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.

Recently, the "hot hand" phenomenon regained interest due to the availability and accessibility of large scale data sets from the world of sports. In support of common wisdom and in contrast to the original conclusions of the seminal paper about this phenomenon by Gilovich, Vallone and Tve...

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Autores principales:	Gur Yaari, Gil David
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/031819e3c0b046469c820e89af420f7a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:031819e3c0b046469c820e89af420f7a2021-11-18T07:30:20Z"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0030112https://doaj.org/article/031819e3c0b046469c820e89af420f7a2012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22253898/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Recently, the "hot hand" phenomenon regained interest due to the availability and accessibility of large scale data sets from the world of sports. In support of common wisdom and in contrast to the original conclusions of the seminal paper about this phenomenon by Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky in 1985, solid evidences were supplied in favor of the existence of this phenomenon in different kinds of data. This came after almost three decades of ongoing debates whether the "hot hand" phenomenon in sport is real or just a mis-perception of human subjects of completely random patterns present in reality. However, although this phenomenon was shown to exist in different sports data including basketball free throws and bowling strike rates, a somehow deeper question remained unanswered: are these non random patterns results of causal, short term, feedback mechanisms or simply time fluctuations of athletes performance. In this paper, we analyze large amounts of data from the Professional Bowling Association(PBA). We studied the results of the top 100 players in terms of the number of available records (summed into more than 450,000 frames). By using permutation approach and dividing the analysis into different aggregation levels we were able to supply evidence for the existence of the "hot hand" phenomenon in the data, in agreement with previous studies. Moreover, by using this approach, we were able to demonstrate that there are, indeed, significant fluctuations from game to game for the same player but there is no clustering of successes (strikes) and failures (non strikes) within each game. Thus we were lead to the conclusion that bowling results show correlation to recent past results but they are not influenced by them in a causal manner.Gur YaariGil DavidPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 1, p e30112 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Gur Yaari Gil David "Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.
description	Recently, the "hot hand" phenomenon regained interest due to the availability and accessibility of large scale data sets from the world of sports. In support of common wisdom and in contrast to the original conclusions of the seminal paper about this phenomenon by Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky in 1985, solid evidences were supplied in favor of the existence of this phenomenon in different kinds of data. This came after almost three decades of ongoing debates whether the "hot hand" phenomenon in sport is real or just a mis-perception of human subjects of completely random patterns present in reality. However, although this phenomenon was shown to exist in different sports data including basketball free throws and bowling strike rates, a somehow deeper question remained unanswered: are these non random patterns results of causal, short term, feedback mechanisms or simply time fluctuations of athletes performance. In this paper, we analyze large amounts of data from the Professional Bowling Association(PBA). We studied the results of the top 100 players in terms of the number of available records (summed into more than 450,000 frames). By using permutation approach and dividing the analysis into different aggregation levels we were able to supply evidence for the existence of the "hot hand" phenomenon in the data, in agreement with previous studies. Moreover, by using this approach, we were able to demonstrate that there are, indeed, significant fluctuations from game to game for the same player but there is no clustering of successes (strikes) and failures (non strikes) within each game. Thus we were lead to the conclusion that bowling results show correlation to recent past results but they are not influenced by them in a causal manner.
format	article
author	Gur Yaari Gil David
author_facet	Gur Yaari Gil David
author_sort	Gur Yaari
title	"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.
title_short	"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.
title_full	"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.
title_fullStr	"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.
title_full_unstemmed	"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.
title_sort	"hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/031819e3c0b046469c820e89af420f7a
work_keys_str_mv	AT guryaari hothandonstrikebowlingdataindicatescorrelationtorecentpastresultsnotcausality AT gildavid hothandonstrikebowlingdataindicatescorrelationtorecentpastresultsnotcausality
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"Hot hand" on strike: bowling data indicates correlation to recent past results, not causality.

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