A wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study

Abstract Background To examine whether outdoor transmission may contribute to the COVID-19 epidemic, we hypothesized that slower outdoor wind speed is associated with increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside. Methods Daily COVID-19 incidence reported in Suffolk County, NY, b...

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Autores principales:	Sean A. P. Clouston, Olga Morozova, Jaymie R. Meliker
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	COVID-19 Infectious disease epidemiology Risk factors Quantitative modeling Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0377d2ab9b264283ba3663490975afb3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0377d2ab9b264283ba3663490975afb32021-11-28T12:41:54ZA wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study10.1186/s12879-021-06796-z1471-2334https://doaj.org/article/0377d2ab9b264283ba3663490975afb32021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06796-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/1471-2334Abstract Background To examine whether outdoor transmission may contribute to the COVID-19 epidemic, we hypothesized that slower outdoor wind speed is associated with increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside. Methods Daily COVID-19 incidence reported in Suffolk County, NY, between March 16th and December 31st, 2020, was the outcome. Average wind speed and maximal daily temperature were collated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Negative binomial regression was used to model incidence rates while adjusting for susceptible population size. Results Cases were very high in the initial wave but diminished once lockdown procedures were enacted. Most days between May 1st, 2020, and October 24th, 2020, had temperatures 16–28 °C and wind speed diminished slowly over the year and began to increase again in December 2020. Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted analyses revealed that days with temperatures ranging between 16 and 28 °C where wind speed was < 8.85 km per hour (KPH) had increased COVID-19 incidence (aIRR = 1.45, 95% C.I. = [1.28–1.64], P < 0.001) as compared to days with average wind speed ≥ 8.85 KPH. Conclusion Throughout the U.S. epidemic, the role of outdoor shared spaces such as parks and beaches has been a topic of considerable interest. This study suggests that outdoor transmission of COVID-19 may occur by noting that the risk of transmission of COVID-19 in the summer was higher on days with low wind speed. Outdoor use of increased physical distance between individuals, improved air circulation, and use of masks may be helpful in some outdoor environments where airflow is limited.Sean A. P. CloustonOlga MorozovaJaymie R. MelikerBMCarticleCOVID-19Infectious disease epidemiologyRisk factorsQuantitative modelingInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENBMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	COVID-19 Infectious disease epidemiology Risk factors Quantitative modeling Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	COVID-19 Infectious disease epidemiology Risk factors Quantitative modeling Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Sean A. P. Clouston Olga Morozova Jaymie R. Meliker A wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study
description	Abstract Background To examine whether outdoor transmission may contribute to the COVID-19 epidemic, we hypothesized that slower outdoor wind speed is associated with increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside. Methods Daily COVID-19 incidence reported in Suffolk County, NY, between March 16th and December 31st, 2020, was the outcome. Average wind speed and maximal daily temperature were collated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Negative binomial regression was used to model incidence rates while adjusting for susceptible population size. Results Cases were very high in the initial wave but diminished once lockdown procedures were enacted. Most days between May 1st, 2020, and October 24th, 2020, had temperatures 16–28 °C and wind speed diminished slowly over the year and began to increase again in December 2020. Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted analyses revealed that days with temperatures ranging between 16 and 28 °C where wind speed was < 8.85 km per hour (KPH) had increased COVID-19 incidence (aIRR = 1.45, 95% C.I. = [1.28–1.64], P < 0.001) as compared to days with average wind speed ≥ 8.85 KPH. Conclusion Throughout the U.S. epidemic, the role of outdoor shared spaces such as parks and beaches has been a topic of considerable interest. This study suggests that outdoor transmission of COVID-19 may occur by noting that the risk of transmission of COVID-19 in the summer was higher on days with low wind speed. Outdoor use of increased physical distance between individuals, improved air circulation, and use of masks may be helpful in some outdoor environments where airflow is limited.
format	article
author	Sean A. P. Clouston Olga Morozova Jaymie R. Meliker
author_facet	Sean A. P. Clouston Olga Morozova Jaymie R. Meliker
author_sort	Sean A. P. Clouston
title	A wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study
title_short	A wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study
title_full	A wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study
title_fullStr	A wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study
title_full_unstemmed	A wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study
title_sort	wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0377d2ab9b264283ba3663490975afb3
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A wind speed threshold for increased outdoor transmission of coronavirus: an ecological study

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