Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model

Wetlands are an important transitional ecosystem, and they play an important role in maintaining ecological balance. However, human activities and climate change have led to a decrease in wetlands. Therefore, to explore the degree of damage and assess the future trends of Guangxi wetlands, this stud...

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Autores principales:	Ze Zhang, Baoqing Hu, Weiguo Jiang, Haihong Qiu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Wetland damage CA-Markov Geographic detector Scenario simulation and prediction Guangxi Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/03f7c10a4c1543fdbcbad0d6d289b9b0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:03f7c10a4c1543fdbcbad0d6d289b9b02021-12-01T04:53:03ZIdentification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107764https://doaj.org/article/03f7c10a4c1543fdbcbad0d6d289b9b02021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21004295https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XWetlands are an important transitional ecosystem, and they play an important role in maintaining ecological balance. However, human activities and climate change have led to a decrease in wetlands. Therefore, to explore the degree of damage and assess the future trends of Guangxi wetlands, this study used the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform, and the support vector machine algorithm was selected for comparison and analysis to simulate the accuracy of land cover. GIS was used to analyse the evolution and degree of damage of nearly 30 Guangxi wetlands. The geographic detector model was used to explore the driving mechanism, and finally, the CA-Markov model and multi-scenario simulation were used to predict the wetland evolution from 2018 to 2035 to reveal the future direction of development. The results showed that (1) From 1990 to 2018, paddy fields accounted for the largest proportion of wetlands in Guangxi. In the past 30 years, the total area of wetlands in Guangxi has been degraded, with a total decrease of 983.33 km2. (2) The degree of wetland damage results showed that the total damaged area was greater than the total restored area, The wetland damage in Nanning city was the most serious, with an area difference of 503.22 km2 between the damaged and restored areas. (3) The analysis of the driving mechanism of wetland damage showed that distance from cities and towns, average precipitation and population density were the main driving factors. (4) The spatial distribution of natural development and economic construction in 2035 will be slightly damaged; additionally, the spatial distribution of ecological protection will expand as a whole. From 2025 to 2035, wetlands will be basically stable under Natural Development Scenario (NDS), degraded each year under the Economic Construction Scenario (ECS), and steadily increased each year under Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS).Ze ZhangBaoqing HuWeiguo JiangHaihong QiuElsevierarticleWetland damageCA-MarkovGeographic detectorScenario simulation and predictionGuangxiEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 127, Iss , Pp 107764- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Wetland damage CA-Markov Geographic detector Scenario simulation and prediction Guangxi Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Wetland damage CA-Markov Geographic detector Scenario simulation and prediction Guangxi Ecology QH540-549.5 Ze Zhang Baoqing Hu Weiguo Jiang Haihong Qiu Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model
description	Wetlands are an important transitional ecosystem, and they play an important role in maintaining ecological balance. However, human activities and climate change have led to a decrease in wetlands. Therefore, to explore the degree of damage and assess the future trends of Guangxi wetlands, this study used the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform, and the support vector machine algorithm was selected for comparison and analysis to simulate the accuracy of land cover. GIS was used to analyse the evolution and degree of damage of nearly 30 Guangxi wetlands. The geographic detector model was used to explore the driving mechanism, and finally, the CA-Markov model and multi-scenario simulation were used to predict the wetland evolution from 2018 to 2035 to reveal the future direction of development. The results showed that (1) From 1990 to 2018, paddy fields accounted for the largest proportion of wetlands in Guangxi. In the past 30 years, the total area of wetlands in Guangxi has been degraded, with a total decrease of 983.33 km2. (2) The degree of wetland damage results showed that the total damaged area was greater than the total restored area, The wetland damage in Nanning city was the most serious, with an area difference of 503.22 km2 between the damaged and restored areas. (3) The analysis of the driving mechanism of wetland damage showed that distance from cities and towns, average precipitation and population density were the main driving factors. (4) The spatial distribution of natural development and economic construction in 2035 will be slightly damaged; additionally, the spatial distribution of ecological protection will expand as a whole. From 2025 to 2035, wetlands will be basically stable under Natural Development Scenario (NDS), degraded each year under the Economic Construction Scenario (ECS), and steadily increased each year under Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS).
format	article
author	Ze Zhang Baoqing Hu Weiguo Jiang Haihong Qiu
author_facet	Ze Zhang Baoqing Hu Weiguo Jiang Haihong Qiu
author_sort	Ze Zhang
title	Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model
title_short	Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model
title_full	Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model
title_fullStr	Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model
title_full_unstemmed	Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model
title_sort	identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in guangxi based on the ca-markov model
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/03f7c10a4c1543fdbcbad0d6d289b9b0
work_keys_str_mv	AT zezhang identificationandscenariopredictionofdegreeofwetlanddamageinguangxibasedonthecamarkovmodel AT baoqinghu identificationandscenariopredictionofdegreeofwetlanddamageinguangxibasedonthecamarkovmodel AT weiguojiang identificationandscenariopredictionofdegreeofwetlanddamageinguangxibasedonthecamarkovmodel AT haihongqiu identificationandscenariopredictionofdegreeofwetlanddamageinguangxibasedonthecamarkovmodel
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Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model

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