Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change

Abstract The economic stress and damage from natural hazards are escalating at an alarming rate, calling for anticipatory risk management. Yet few studies have projected flood and drought risk, owing to large uncertainties, strong non‐linearities, and complex spatial‐temporal dynamics. Here, we deve...

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Autores principales:	Hossein Tabari, Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei, Wim Thiery, Patrick Willems
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/051a9fd3588d4157b1b891f879f26bd4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:051a9fd3588d4157b1b891f879f26bd42021-11-23T22:36:10ZAmplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change2328-427710.1029/2021EF002295https://doaj.org/article/051a9fd3588d4157b1b891f879f26bd42021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002295https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277Abstract The economic stress and damage from natural hazards are escalating at an alarming rate, calling for anticipatory risk management. Yet few studies have projected flood and drought risk, owing to large uncertainties, strong non‐linearities, and complex spatial‐temporal dynamics. Here, we develop an integrative global risk analysis framework encapsulating future changes in flood and drought hazards as well as associated exposure and vulnerability dimensions. Flood characteristics are quantified by fitting a generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) to the annual flow maxima time series, while drought properties are characterized by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The drivers of drought and flood risk changes at the global and regional scales are explored, and the wide cascade of uncertainties in the risk assessment is decomposed. We find a substantial increase in both flood and drought risk towards the end of the century over most of the globe, driven by compounding changes in exposure, vulnerability, and hazard. A shift from a fossil‐fueled development to a sustainable one decreases the global area facing a risk doubling from 61% to 33% for flood and from 41% to 23% for drought. South America and Africa are identified as hotspot regions where a concomitant, large increase in both flood and drought risk are projected. The hazard quantification method is ubiquitously the dominant uncertainty source for drought risk changes, while the contribution of uncertainty sources for flood risk changes is highly variable in space.Hossein TabariParisa HosseinzadehtalaeiWim ThieryPatrick WillemsAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)articleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350EcologyQH540-549.5ENEarth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Hossein Tabari Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei Wim Thiery Patrick Willems Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change
description	Abstract The economic stress and damage from natural hazards are escalating at an alarming rate, calling for anticipatory risk management. Yet few studies have projected flood and drought risk, owing to large uncertainties, strong non‐linearities, and complex spatial‐temporal dynamics. Here, we develop an integrative global risk analysis framework encapsulating future changes in flood and drought hazards as well as associated exposure and vulnerability dimensions. Flood characteristics are quantified by fitting a generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) to the annual flow maxima time series, while drought properties are characterized by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The drivers of drought and flood risk changes at the global and regional scales are explored, and the wide cascade of uncertainties in the risk assessment is decomposed. We find a substantial increase in both flood and drought risk towards the end of the century over most of the globe, driven by compounding changes in exposure, vulnerability, and hazard. A shift from a fossil‐fueled development to a sustainable one decreases the global area facing a risk doubling from 61% to 33% for flood and from 41% to 23% for drought. South America and Africa are identified as hotspot regions where a concomitant, large increase in both flood and drought risk are projected. The hazard quantification method is ubiquitously the dominant uncertainty source for drought risk changes, while the contribution of uncertainty sources for flood risk changes is highly variable in space.
format	article
author	Hossein Tabari Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei Wim Thiery Patrick Willems
author_facet	Hossein Tabari Parisa Hosseinzadehtalaei Wim Thiery Patrick Willems
author_sort	Hossein Tabari
title	Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change
title_short	Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change
title_full	Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change
title_fullStr	Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change
title_full_unstemmed	Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change
title_sort	amplified drought and flood risk under future socioeconomic and climatic change
publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/051a9fd3588d4157b1b891f879f26bd4
work_keys_str_mv	AT hosseintabari amplifieddroughtandfloodriskunderfuturesocioeconomicandclimaticchange AT parisahosseinzadehtalaei amplifieddroughtandfloodriskunderfuturesocioeconomicandclimaticchange AT wimthiery amplifieddroughtandfloodriskunderfuturesocioeconomicandclimaticchange AT patrickwillems amplifieddroughtandfloodriskunderfuturesocioeconomicandclimaticchange
_version_	1718416073768828928

Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change

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