Arctic Sea Ice Response to Flooding of the Snow Layer in Future Warming Scenarios

Abstract The projected decline in Arctic sea ice extent as the Earth warms in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations will occur in conjunction with increased precipitation in the Arctic, and more of that precipitation is projected to fall as rain, especially in autumn and early winter....

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Autores principales:	Andrew G. Pauling, Cecilia M. Bitz
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2021
Materias:	sea ice geoengineering flooding future scenarios climate modeling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/053bcb333f7d40718904b8a7d5336183
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:053bcb333f7d40718904b8a7d53361832021-11-23T22:36:10ZArctic Sea Ice Response to Flooding of the Snow Layer in Future Warming Scenarios2328-427710.1029/2021EF002136https://doaj.org/article/053bcb333f7d40718904b8a7d53361832021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002136https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277Abstract The projected decline in Arctic sea ice extent as the Earth warms in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations will occur in conjunction with increased precipitation in the Arctic, and more of that precipitation is projected to fall as rain, especially in autumn and early winter. A recently proposed method of offsetting the decline in Arctic sea ice extent would pump seawater on the sea ice surface. Either way, we envision the liquid water first infiltrating the overlying snow layer creating slush. Winter conditions would then freeze the slush to directly thicken the ice. The net reduction in insulation would increase basal growth, adding an indirect thickening effect. Simulating the response to augmented snow layer flooding gives insights that are relevant in the future Arctic with or without the implementation of geoengineering. We use a hierarchy of models to show that flooding snow on sea ice is most effective at thickening Arctic sea ice when flooding begins early in the sea ice growth season. For the geoengineering scheme to be most effective, the pumps must be deployed almost immediately, while there is still a sufficient area of sea ice over which to flood, and must continue for decades. Sea ice loss would be best mitigated if flooding is combined with reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, the increase in rainfall over the Arctic in the 21st century is unlikely to offset a substantial portion of the loss due to warming.Andrew G. PaulingCecilia M. BitzAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)articlesea icegeoengineeringfloodingfuture scenariosclimate modelingEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350EcologyQH540-549.5ENEarth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	sea ice geoengineering flooding future scenarios climate modeling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	sea ice geoengineering flooding future scenarios climate modeling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Andrew G. Pauling Cecilia M. Bitz Arctic Sea Ice Response to Flooding of the Snow Layer in Future Warming Scenarios
description	Abstract The projected decline in Arctic sea ice extent as the Earth warms in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations will occur in conjunction with increased precipitation in the Arctic, and more of that precipitation is projected to fall as rain, especially in autumn and early winter. A recently proposed method of offsetting the decline in Arctic sea ice extent would pump seawater on the sea ice surface. Either way, we envision the liquid water first infiltrating the overlying snow layer creating slush. Winter conditions would then freeze the slush to directly thicken the ice. The net reduction in insulation would increase basal growth, adding an indirect thickening effect. Simulating the response to augmented snow layer flooding gives insights that are relevant in the future Arctic with or without the implementation of geoengineering. We use a hierarchy of models to show that flooding snow on sea ice is most effective at thickening Arctic sea ice when flooding begins early in the sea ice growth season. For the geoengineering scheme to be most effective, the pumps must be deployed almost immediately, while there is still a sufficient area of sea ice over which to flood, and must continue for decades. Sea ice loss would be best mitigated if flooding is combined with reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, the increase in rainfall over the Arctic in the 21st century is unlikely to offset a substantial portion of the loss due to warming.
format	article
author	Andrew G. Pauling Cecilia M. Bitz
author_facet	Andrew G. Pauling Cecilia M. Bitz
author_sort	Andrew G. Pauling
title	Arctic Sea Ice Response to Flooding of the Snow Layer in Future Warming Scenarios
title_short	Arctic Sea Ice Response to Flooding of the Snow Layer in Future Warming Scenarios
title_full	Arctic Sea Ice Response to Flooding of the Snow Layer in Future Warming Scenarios
title_fullStr	Arctic Sea Ice Response to Flooding of the Snow Layer in Future Warming Scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Arctic Sea Ice Response to Flooding of the Snow Layer in Future Warming Scenarios
title_sort	arctic sea ice response to flooding of the snow layer in future warming scenarios
publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/053bcb333f7d40718904b8a7d5336183
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Arctic Sea Ice Response to Flooding of the Snow Layer in Future Warming Scenarios

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