Nomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients: a single center retrospective study

Objectives Risk of death is high for hemodialysis (HD) patients but it varies considerably among individuals. There is few clinical tool to predict long-term survival rates for HD patients yet. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a easy-to-use nomogram for prediction of 1-, 5-, and 10-...

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Autores principales:	Han Ouyang, Qiuhong Shi, Jing Zhu, Huaying Shen, Shan Jiang, Kai Song
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Taylor & Francis Group 2021
Materias:	hemodialysis nomogram prediction model survival all-cause mortality Diseases of the genitourinary system. Urology RC870-923
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/062e3dd60b134b6ebf1e60487ed426db
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:062e3dd60b134b6ebf1e60487ed426db2021-11-17T14:21:55ZNomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients: a single center retrospective study0886-022X1525-604910.1080/0886022X.2021.1997762https://doaj.org/article/062e3dd60b134b6ebf1e60487ed426db2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0886022X.2021.1997762https://doaj.org/toc/0886-022Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1525-6049Objectives Risk of death is high for hemodialysis (HD) patients but it varies considerably among individuals. There is few clinical tool to predict long-term survival rates for HD patients yet. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a easy-to-use nomogram for prediction of 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival among HD patients. Methods This study retrospectively enrolled 643 adult HD patients who was randomly assigned to two cohorts: the training cohort (n = 438) and validation cohort (n = 205), univariate survival analyses were performed using Kaplan–Meier’s curve with log-rank test and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive factors, and a easy-to-use nomogram was established. The performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Results The score included seven commonly available predictors: age, diabetes, use of arteriovenous fistula (AVF), history of emergency temporary dialysis catheter placement, cardiovascular disease (CVD), hemoglobin (Hgl), and no caregiver. The score revealed good discrimination in the training and validation cohort (AUC 0.779 and 0.758, respectively) and the calibration plots showed well calibration, indicating suitable performance of the nomogram model. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram added more net benefit compared with the treat-all strategy or treat-none strategy with a threshold probability of 10% or greater. Conclusions This easy-to-use nomogram can accurately predict 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival for HD patients, which could be used in clinical decision-making and clinical care. Abbreviations:Han OuyangQiuhong ShiJing ZhuHuaying ShenShan JiangKai SongTaylor & Francis Grouparticlehemodialysisnomogramprediction modelsurvivalall-cause mortalityDiseases of the genitourinary system. UrologyRC870-923ENRenal Failure, Vol 43, Iss 1, Pp 1508-1519 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	hemodialysis nomogram prediction model survival all-cause mortality Diseases of the genitourinary system. Urology RC870-923
spellingShingle	hemodialysis nomogram prediction model survival all-cause mortality Diseases of the genitourinary system. Urology RC870-923 Han Ouyang Qiuhong Shi Jing Zhu Huaying Shen Shan Jiang Kai Song Nomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients: a single center retrospective study
description	Objectives Risk of death is high for hemodialysis (HD) patients but it varies considerably among individuals. There is few clinical tool to predict long-term survival rates for HD patients yet. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a easy-to-use nomogram for prediction of 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival among HD patients. Methods This study retrospectively enrolled 643 adult HD patients who was randomly assigned to two cohorts: the training cohort (n = 438) and validation cohort (n = 205), univariate survival analyses were performed using Kaplan–Meier’s curve with log-rank test and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive factors, and a easy-to-use nomogram was established. The performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Results The score included seven commonly available predictors: age, diabetes, use of arteriovenous fistula (AVF), history of emergency temporary dialysis catheter placement, cardiovascular disease (CVD), hemoglobin (Hgl), and no caregiver. The score revealed good discrimination in the training and validation cohort (AUC 0.779 and 0.758, respectively) and the calibration plots showed well calibration, indicating suitable performance of the nomogram model. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram added more net benefit compared with the treat-all strategy or treat-none strategy with a threshold probability of 10% or greater. Conclusions This easy-to-use nomogram can accurately predict 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival for HD patients, which could be used in clinical decision-making and clinical care. Abbreviations:
format	article
author	Han Ouyang Qiuhong Shi Jing Zhu Huaying Shen Shan Jiang Kai Song
author_facet	Han Ouyang Qiuhong Shi Jing Zhu Huaying Shen Shan Jiang Kai Song
author_sort	Han Ouyang
title	Nomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients: a single center retrospective study
title_short	Nomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients: a single center retrospective study
title_full	Nomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients: a single center retrospective study
title_fullStr	Nomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients: a single center retrospective study
title_full_unstemmed	Nomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients: a single center retrospective study
title_sort	nomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (hd) patients: a single center retrospective study
publisher	Taylor & Francis Group
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/062e3dd60b134b6ebf1e60487ed426db
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Nomogram for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients: a single center retrospective study

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