Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques

Forecasting the foreign currency exchange is a challenging task since it is influenced by political, economic and psychological factors. This paper focuses on the forecasting Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) using Exponential Smoothing Techniques which ar...

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Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Perlis 2021
Materias:	Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 Technology T Technology (General) T1-995
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/063067fe343147b0b5cd6cc8c5aaba6f
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:063067fe343147b0b5cd6cc8c5aaba6f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:063067fe343147b0b5cd6cc8c5aaba6f2021-11-06T02:21:32ZForecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques2600-8793https://doaj.org/article/063067fe343147b0b5cd6cc8c5aaba6f2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://repeater.my/index.php/jcrinn/article/view/183https://doaj.org/toc/2600-8793 Forecasting the foreign currency exchange is a challenging task since it is influenced by political, economic and psychological factors. This paper focuses on the forecasting Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) using Exponential Smoothing Techniques which are Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Holt’s method. The objectives of this paper are to identify the best Exponential Smoothing Technique that describes MYR for 5 years period and to forecast MYR 12 months ahead by using the best Exponential Smoothing Technique. The comparison between these techniques is also made and the best one will be selected to forecast the MYR exchange rate against USD. The result showed that Holt’s method has the smallest value of error measure which depending on the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the evaluation part. The MSE is 1.43915x10-14 and MAPE is 2.5413 x 10-6. Meanwhile, the forecast value of MYR in August 2019 is RM 4.30226. Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA PerlisarticleProbabilities. Mathematical statisticsQA273-280TechnologyTTechnology (General)T1-995ENJournal of Computing Research and Innovation, Vol 6, Iss 2 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 Technology T Technology (General) T1-995
spellingShingle	Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 Technology T Technology (General) T1-995 Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques
description	Forecasting the foreign currency exchange is a challenging task since it is influenced by political, economic and psychological factors. This paper focuses on the forecasting Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) using Exponential Smoothing Techniques which are Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Holt’s method. The objectives of this paper are to identify the best Exponential Smoothing Technique that describes MYR for 5 years period and to forecast MYR 12 months ahead by using the best Exponential Smoothing Technique. The comparison between these techniques is also made and the best one will be selected to forecast the MYR exchange rate against USD. The result showed that Holt’s method has the smallest value of error measure which depending on the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the evaluation part. The MSE is 1.43915x10-14 and MAPE is 2.5413 x 10-6. Meanwhile, the forecast value of MYR in August 2019 is RM 4.30226.
format	article
title	Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques
title_short	Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques
title_full	Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques
title_fullStr	Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques
title_sort	forecasting malaysian ringgit using exponential smoothing techniques
publisher	Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Perlis
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/063067fe343147b0b5cd6cc8c5aaba6f
_version_	1718443959262380032

Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques

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