Using the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred controversies related to whether countries manipulate reported data for political gains. We study the association between accuracy of reported COVID-19 data and developmental indicators. We use the Newcomb–Benford law (NBL) to gauge data accuracy. We run an...

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Autores principales:	Vadim S. Balashov, Yuxing Yan, Xiaodi Zhu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0655caf3756649c6b70f1e0538b84a48
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0655caf3756649c6b70f1e0538b84a482021-11-28T12:15:41ZUsing the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development10.1038/s41598-021-02367-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0655caf3756649c6b70f1e0538b84a482021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02367-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred controversies related to whether countries manipulate reported data for political gains. We study the association between accuracy of reported COVID-19 data and developmental indicators. We use the Newcomb–Benford law (NBL) to gauge data accuracy. We run an OLS regression of an index constructed from developmental indicators (democracy level, gross domestic product per capita, healthcare expenditures, and universal healthcare coverage) on goodness-of-fit measures to the NBL. We find that countries with higher values of the developmental index are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law. The relationship holds for the cumulative number of reported deaths and total cases but is more pronounced for the death toll. The findings are robust for second-digit tests and for a sub-sample of countries with regional data. The NBL provides a first screening for potential data manipulation during pandemics. Our study indicates that data from autocratic regimes and less developed countries should be treated with more caution. The paper further highlights the importance of independent surveillance data verification projects.Vadim S. BalashovYuxing YanXiaodi ZhuNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Vadim S. Balashov Yuxing Yan Xiaodi Zhu Using the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development
description	Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred controversies related to whether countries manipulate reported data for political gains. We study the association between accuracy of reported COVID-19 data and developmental indicators. We use the Newcomb–Benford law (NBL) to gauge data accuracy. We run an OLS regression of an index constructed from developmental indicators (democracy level, gross domestic product per capita, healthcare expenditures, and universal healthcare coverage) on goodness-of-fit measures to the NBL. We find that countries with higher values of the developmental index are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law. The relationship holds for the cumulative number of reported deaths and total cases but is more pronounced for the death toll. The findings are robust for second-digit tests and for a sub-sample of countries with regional data. The NBL provides a first screening for potential data manipulation during pandemics. Our study indicates that data from autocratic regimes and less developed countries should be treated with more caution. The paper further highlights the importance of independent surveillance data verification projects.
format	article
author	Vadim S. Balashov Yuxing Yan Xiaodi Zhu
author_facet	Vadim S. Balashov Yuxing Yan Xiaodi Zhu
author_sort	Vadim S. Balashov
title	Using the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development
title_short	Using the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development
title_full	Using the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development
title_fullStr	Using the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development
title_full_unstemmed	Using the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development
title_sort	using the newcomb–benford law to study the association between a country’s covid-19 reporting accuracy and its development
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0655caf3756649c6b70f1e0538b84a48
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Using the Newcomb–Benford law to study the association between a country’s COVID-19 reporting accuracy and its development

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