ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF VERIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF FIGURES OF ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SPHERE IN RUSSIA

On the basis of authors' programs and methodological approaches the automated system of calculating short-term forecast of the parameters in the field of research and innovation was developed. The article for the first time raised and solved the task of analyzing dynamic assessment of accuracy...

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Autores principales:	Igor B. Kolmakov, Olga V. Kitova, Aleksey V. Koltsov, Matvey V. Domozhakov
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	RU
Publicado:	Plekhanov Russian University of Economics 2017
Materias:	field of research and innovation systems of regressive equations models of sort-term forecast forecast verification Economics as a science HB71-74
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/071b7cfcc6f0493f98e90fe6e5f29b42
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:071b7cfcc6f0493f98e90fe6e5f29b422021-11-15T05:20:44ZANALYZING THE RESULTS OF VERIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF FIGURES OF ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SPHERE IN RUSSIA2413-28292587-925110.21686/2413-2829-2016-5-160-172https://doaj.org/article/071b7cfcc6f0493f98e90fe6e5f29b422017-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/214https://doaj.org/toc/2413-2829https://doaj.org/toc/2587-9251On the basis of authors' programs and methodological approaches the automated system of calculating short-term forecast of the parameters in the field of research and innovation was developed. The article for the first time raised and solved the task of analyzing dynamic assessment of accuracy and quality of retro-forecast parameters on the data for 2012, 2013 and 2014. Figures of the research and developments observed by the Rosstat were analyzed, as well as methodology of their shaping and trajectories of the data for 2004-2014. The authors found the reasons for restrictions and maximum possibilities of using regressive models of the forecast. A specialized complex of automated calculation accuracy and quality of retro-forecast. The research proved conclusions about qualitative restrictions of possibilities of econometric models and allowed to get qualitative assessment for parameters in the field of research and innovation. More than 80% of figures are forecasted successfully. As for other figures it is recommended to use alternative methods of forecast, for instance neuro-network. The use of verification in the automated system of calculating the comparative assessments could increase the speed, accuracy and quality of regressive equation adjustment.Igor B. KolmakovOlga V. KitovaAleksey V. KoltsovMatvey V. DomozhakovPlekhanov Russian University of Economicsarticlefield of research and innovationsystems of regressive equationsmodels of sort-term forecastforecast verificationEconomics as a scienceHB71-74RUВестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. Плеханова, Vol 0, Iss 5, Pp 160-172 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	RU
topic	field of research and innovation systems of regressive equations models of sort-term forecast forecast verification Economics as a science HB71-74
spellingShingle	field of research and innovation systems of regressive equations models of sort-term forecast forecast verification Economics as a science HB71-74 Igor B. Kolmakov Olga V. Kitova Aleksey V. Koltsov Matvey V. Domozhakov ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF VERIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF FIGURES OF ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SPHERE IN RUSSIA
description	On the basis of authors' programs and methodological approaches the automated system of calculating short-term forecast of the parameters in the field of research and innovation was developed. The article for the first time raised and solved the task of analyzing dynamic assessment of accuracy and quality of retro-forecast parameters on the data for 2012, 2013 and 2014. Figures of the research and developments observed by the Rosstat were analyzed, as well as methodology of their shaping and trajectories of the data for 2004-2014. The authors found the reasons for restrictions and maximum possibilities of using regressive models of the forecast. A specialized complex of automated calculation accuracy and quality of retro-forecast. The research proved conclusions about qualitative restrictions of possibilities of econometric models and allowed to get qualitative assessment for parameters in the field of research and innovation. More than 80% of figures are forecasted successfully. As for other figures it is recommended to use alternative methods of forecast, for instance neuro-network. The use of verification in the automated system of calculating the comparative assessments could increase the speed, accuracy and quality of regressive equation adjustment.
format	article
author	Igor B. Kolmakov Olga V. Kitova Aleksey V. Koltsov Matvey V. Domozhakov
author_facet	Igor B. Kolmakov Olga V. Kitova Aleksey V. Koltsov Matvey V. Domozhakov
author_sort	Igor B. Kolmakov
title	ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF VERIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF FIGURES OF ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SPHERE IN RUSSIA
title_short	ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF VERIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF FIGURES OF ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SPHERE IN RUSSIA
title_full	ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF VERIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF FIGURES OF ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SPHERE IN RUSSIA
title_fullStr	ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF VERIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF FIGURES OF ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SPHERE IN RUSSIA
title_full_unstemmed	ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF VERIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF FIGURES OF ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SPHERE IN RUSSIA
title_sort	analyzing the results of verification of short-term forecasts of figures of academic research and innovation sphere in russia
publisher	Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/071b7cfcc6f0493f98e90fe6e5f29b42
work_keys_str_mv	AT igorbkolmakov analyzingtheresultsofverificationofshorttermforecastsoffiguresofacademicresearchandinnovationsphereinrussia AT olgavkitova analyzingtheresultsofverificationofshorttermforecastsoffiguresofacademicresearchandinnovationsphereinrussia AT alekseyvkoltsov analyzingtheresultsofverificationofshorttermforecastsoffiguresofacademicresearchandinnovationsphereinrussia AT matveyvdomozhakov analyzingtheresultsofverificationofshorttermforecastsoffiguresofacademicresearchandinnovationsphereinrussia
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ANALYZING THE RESULTS OF VERIFICATION OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF FIGURES OF ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SPHERE IN RUSSIA

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