Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | article |
| Language: | EN |
| Published: |
IWA Publishing
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doaj.org/article/07ffdb01883442e2a2504ffc515bfd38 |
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| Summary: | Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and drought in this region under two SSP–RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean projects a warming (wetting) of 1.99–4.29 °C (9.62–18.43%) in the 21st century. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at 12-month time scales (SPEI-12) displays moderate-to-severe dry conditions over all countries during the near-future period, then the wet condition is projected from mid-future to far-future periods. The projected drought characteristics show relatively longer durations, higher peak intensities, and more severities under SSP5-8.5, while the higher number of events are projected under SSP2-4.5. Overall, the SPEI-12 over SEA displays significant regional differences with decreasing dryness trend toward the 21st century. All these findings have important implications for policy intervention to water resource management under a changing climate over SEA. HIGHLIGHTS
Climate change impact on Southeast Asia is significant due to its ‘Kitchen of the world’ vision.;
The newly launched CMIP6 model is the latest findings for scientific community.;
The assessment of climate change impact by CMIP6 over SEA is never done.;
Key findings for drought characteristics are found.;
These findings are very beneficial for policymakers.; |
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