Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and...
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2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:07ffdb01883442e2a2504ffc515bfd382021-11-10T00:00:00ZProjected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.308https://doaj.org/article/07ffdb01883442e2a2504ffc515bfd382021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/7/3330https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and drought in this region under two SSP–RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean projects a warming (wetting) of 1.99–4.29 °C (9.62–18.43%) in the 21st century. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at 12-month time scales (SPEI-12) displays moderate-to-severe dry conditions over all countries during the near-future period, then the wet condition is projected from mid-future to far-future periods. The projected drought characteristics show relatively longer durations, higher peak intensities, and more severities under SSP5-8.5, while the higher number of events are projected under SSP2-4.5. Overall, the SPEI-12 over SEA displays significant regional differences with decreasing dryness trend toward the 21st century. All these findings have important implications for policy intervention to water resource management under a changing climate over SEA. HIGHLIGHTS Climate change impact on Southeast Asia is significant due to its ‘Kitchen of the world’ vision.; The newly launched CMIP6 model is the latest findings for scientific community.; The assessment of climate change impact by CMIP6 over SEA is never done.; Key findings for drought characteristics are found.; These findings are very beneficial for policymakers.;S. SupharatidJ. NafungIWA Publishingarticlecmip6precipitationshared socioeconomic pathwayspei-12temperatureEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 7, Pp 3330-3354 (2021) |
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cmip6 precipitation shared socioeconomic pathway spei-12 temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
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cmip6 precipitation shared socioeconomic pathway spei-12 temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 S. Supharatid J. Nafung Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia |
description |
Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and drought in this region under two SSP–RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean projects a warming (wetting) of 1.99–4.29 °C (9.62–18.43%) in the 21st century. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at 12-month time scales (SPEI-12) displays moderate-to-severe dry conditions over all countries during the near-future period, then the wet condition is projected from mid-future to far-future periods. The projected drought characteristics show relatively longer durations, higher peak intensities, and more severities under SSP5-8.5, while the higher number of events are projected under SSP2-4.5. Overall, the SPEI-12 over SEA displays significant regional differences with decreasing dryness trend toward the 21st century. All these findings have important implications for policy intervention to water resource management under a changing climate over SEA. HIGHLIGHTS
Climate change impact on Southeast Asia is significant due to its ‘Kitchen of the world’ vision.;
The newly launched CMIP6 model is the latest findings for scientific community.;
The assessment of climate change impact by CMIP6 over SEA is never done.;
Key findings for drought characteristics are found.;
These findings are very beneficial for policymakers.; |
format |
article |
author |
S. Supharatid J. Nafung |
author_facet |
S. Supharatid J. Nafung |
author_sort |
S. Supharatid |
title |
Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia |
title_short |
Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia |
title_full |
Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia |
title_fullStr |
Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia |
title_sort |
projected drought conditions by cmip6 multimodel ensemble over southeast asia |
publisher |
IWA Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/07ffdb01883442e2a2504ffc515bfd38 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT ssupharatid projecteddroughtconditionsbycmip6multimodelensembleoversoutheastasia AT jnafung projecteddroughtconditionsbycmip6multimodelensembleoversoutheastasia |
_version_ |
1718440717966114816 |