Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and...

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Autores principales: S. Supharatid, J. Nafung
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Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: IWA Publishing 2021
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:07ffdb01883442e2a2504ffc515bfd382021-11-10T00:00:00ZProjected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.308https://doaj.org/article/07ffdb01883442e2a2504ffc515bfd382021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/7/3330https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and drought in this region under two SSP–RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean projects a warming (wetting) of 1.99–4.29 °C (9.62–18.43%) in the 21st century. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at 12-month time scales (SPEI-12) displays moderate-to-severe dry conditions over all countries during the near-future period, then the wet condition is projected from mid-future to far-future periods. The projected drought characteristics show relatively longer durations, higher peak intensities, and more severities under SSP5-8.5, while the higher number of events are projected under SSP2-4.5. Overall, the SPEI-12 over SEA displays significant regional differences with decreasing dryness trend toward the 21st century. All these findings have important implications for policy intervention to water resource management under a changing climate over SEA. HIGHLIGHTS Climate change impact on Southeast Asia is significant due to its ‘Kitchen of the world’ vision.; The newly launched CMIP6 model is the latest findings for scientific community.; The assessment of climate change impact by CMIP6 over SEA is never done.; Key findings for drought characteristics are found.; These findings are very beneficial for policymakers.;S. SupharatidJ. NafungIWA Publishingarticlecmip6precipitationshared socioeconomic pathwayspei-12temperatureEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 7, Pp 3330-3354 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic cmip6
precipitation
shared socioeconomic pathway
spei-12
temperature
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
TD1-1066
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
spellingShingle cmip6
precipitation
shared socioeconomic pathway
spei-12
temperature
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
TD1-1066
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
S. Supharatid
J. Nafung
Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia
description Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and drought in this region under two SSP–RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean projects a warming (wetting) of 1.99–4.29 °C (9.62–18.43%) in the 21st century. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at 12-month time scales (SPEI-12) displays moderate-to-severe dry conditions over all countries during the near-future period, then the wet condition is projected from mid-future to far-future periods. The projected drought characteristics show relatively longer durations, higher peak intensities, and more severities under SSP5-8.5, while the higher number of events are projected under SSP2-4.5. Overall, the SPEI-12 over SEA displays significant regional differences with decreasing dryness trend toward the 21st century. All these findings have important implications for policy intervention to water resource management under a changing climate over SEA. HIGHLIGHTS Climate change impact on Southeast Asia is significant due to its ‘Kitchen of the world’ vision.; The newly launched CMIP6 model is the latest findings for scientific community.; The assessment of climate change impact by CMIP6 over SEA is never done.; Key findings for drought characteristics are found.; These findings are very beneficial for policymakers.;
format article
author S. Supharatid
J. Nafung
author_facet S. Supharatid
J. Nafung
author_sort S. Supharatid
title Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia
title_short Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia
title_full Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia
title_fullStr Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia
title_full_unstemmed Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia
title_sort projected drought conditions by cmip6 multimodel ensemble over southeast asia
publisher IWA Publishing
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/07ffdb01883442e2a2504ffc515bfd38
work_keys_str_mv AT ssupharatid projecteddroughtconditionsbycmip6multimodelensembleoversoutheastasia
AT jnafung projecteddroughtconditionsbycmip6multimodelensembleoversoutheastasia
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