Associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model

Abstract The etiology of Kawasaki Disease (KD), the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries, remains elusive, but could be multifactorial in nature as suggested by the numerous environmental and infectious exposures that have previously been linked to its epide...

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Autores principales:	Tisiana Low, Brian W. McCrindle, Brigitte Mueller, Chun-Po S. Fan, Emily Somerset, Sunita O’Shea, Leonard J. S. Tsuji, Hong Chen, Cedric Manlhiot
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/08b61f0f751a4dcea68f1ea6d82ae41f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:08b61f0f751a4dcea68f1ea6d82ae41f2021-12-02T16:14:09ZAssociations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model10.1038/s41598-021-93089-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/08b61f0f751a4dcea68f1ea6d82ae41f2021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93089-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The etiology of Kawasaki Disease (KD), the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries, remains elusive, but could be multifactorial in nature as suggested by the numerous environmental and infectious exposures that have previously been linked to its epidemiology. There is still a lack of a comprehensive model describing these complex associations. We present a Bayesian disease model that provides insight in the spatiotemporal distribution of KD in Canada from 2004 to 2017. The disease model including environmental factors had improved Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) compared to the base model which included only spatiotemporal and demographic effects and had excellent performance in recapitulating the spatiotemporal distribution of KD in Canada (98% and 86% spatial and temporal correlations, respectively). The model suggests an association between the distribution of KD and population composition, weather-related factors, aeroallergen exposure, pollution, atmospheric concentration of spores and algae, and the incidence of healthcare encounters for bacterial pneumonia or viral intestinal infections. This model could be the basis of a hypothetical data-driven framework for the spatiotemporal distribution of KD. It also generates novel hypotheses about the etiology of KD, and provides a basis for the future development of a predictive and surveillance model.Tisiana LowBrian W. McCrindleBrigitte MuellerChun-Po S. FanEmily SomersetSunita O’SheaLeonard J. S. TsujiHong ChenCedric ManlhiotNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tisiana Low Brian W. McCrindle Brigitte Mueller Chun-Po S. Fan Emily Somerset Sunita O’Shea Leonard J. S. Tsuji Hong Chen Cedric Manlhiot Associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model
description	Abstract The etiology of Kawasaki Disease (KD), the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries, remains elusive, but could be multifactorial in nature as suggested by the numerous environmental and infectious exposures that have previously been linked to its epidemiology. There is still a lack of a comprehensive model describing these complex associations. We present a Bayesian disease model that provides insight in the spatiotemporal distribution of KD in Canada from 2004 to 2017. The disease model including environmental factors had improved Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) compared to the base model which included only spatiotemporal and demographic effects and had excellent performance in recapitulating the spatiotemporal distribution of KD in Canada (98% and 86% spatial and temporal correlations, respectively). The model suggests an association between the distribution of KD and population composition, weather-related factors, aeroallergen exposure, pollution, atmospheric concentration of spores and algae, and the incidence of healthcare encounters for bacterial pneumonia or viral intestinal infections. This model could be the basis of a hypothetical data-driven framework for the spatiotemporal distribution of KD. It also generates novel hypotheses about the etiology of KD, and provides a basis for the future development of a predictive and surveillance model.
format	article
author	Tisiana Low Brian W. McCrindle Brigitte Mueller Chun-Po S. Fan Emily Somerset Sunita O’Shea Leonard J. S. Tsuji Hong Chen Cedric Manlhiot
author_facet	Tisiana Low Brian W. McCrindle Brigitte Mueller Chun-Po S. Fan Emily Somerset Sunita O’Shea Leonard J. S. Tsuji Hong Chen Cedric Manlhiot
author_sort	Tisiana Low
title	Associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model
title_short	Associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model
title_full	Associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model
title_fullStr	Associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model
title_full_unstemmed	Associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model
title_sort	associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/08b61f0f751a4dcea68f1ea6d82ae41f
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Associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model

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