Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting

Abstract Soil moisture predictability on seasonal to decadal (S2D) continuum timescales over North America is examined from the Community Earth System Modeling (CESM) experiments. The effects of ocean and land initializations are disentangled using two large ensemble datasets—initialized and uniniti...

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Autores principales:	Musa Esit, Sanjiv Kumar, Ashutosh Pandey, David M. Lawrence, Imtiaz Rangwala, Stephen Yeager
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/08e725ec2f9f40169e416c3ddf0f2b34
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:08e725ec2f9f40169e416c3ddf0f2b34
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:08e725ec2f9f40169e416c3ddf0f2b342021-12-02T15:52:21ZSeasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting10.1038/s41612-021-00172-z2397-3722https://doaj.org/article/08e725ec2f9f40169e416c3ddf0f2b342021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00172-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Soil moisture predictability on seasonal to decadal (S2D) continuum timescales over North America is examined from the Community Earth System Modeling (CESM) experiments. The effects of ocean and land initializations are disentangled using two large ensemble datasets—initialized and uninitialized experiments from the CESM. We find that soil moisture has significant predictability on S2D timescales despite limited predictability in precipitation. On sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales, precipitation variability is an order of magnitude greater than soil moisture, suggesting land surface processes, including soil moisture memory, reemergence, land–atmosphere interactions, transform a less predictable precipitation signal into a more predictable soil moisture signal.Musa EsitSanjiv KumarAshutosh PandeyDavid M. LawrenceImtiaz RangwalaStephen YeagerNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Musa Esit Sanjiv Kumar Ashutosh Pandey David M. Lawrence Imtiaz Rangwala Stephen Yeager Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting
description	Abstract Soil moisture predictability on seasonal to decadal (S2D) continuum timescales over North America is examined from the Community Earth System Modeling (CESM) experiments. The effects of ocean and land initializations are disentangled using two large ensemble datasets—initialized and uninitialized experiments from the CESM. We find that soil moisture has significant predictability on S2D timescales despite limited predictability in precipitation. On sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales, precipitation variability is an order of magnitude greater than soil moisture, suggesting land surface processes, including soil moisture memory, reemergence, land–atmosphere interactions, transform a less predictable precipitation signal into a more predictable soil moisture signal.
format	article
author	Musa Esit Sanjiv Kumar Ashutosh Pandey David M. Lawrence Imtiaz Rangwala Stephen Yeager
author_facet	Musa Esit Sanjiv Kumar Ashutosh Pandey David M. Lawrence Imtiaz Rangwala Stephen Yeager
author_sort	Musa Esit
title	Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting
title_short	Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting
title_full	Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting
title_fullStr	Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting
title_full_unstemmed	Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting
title_sort	seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/08e725ec2f9f40169e416c3ddf0f2b34
work_keys_str_mv	AT musaesit seasonaltomultiyearsoilmoisturedroughtforecasting AT sanjivkumar seasonaltomultiyearsoilmoisturedroughtforecasting AT ashutoshpandey seasonaltomultiyearsoilmoisturedroughtforecasting AT davidmlawrence seasonaltomultiyearsoilmoisturedroughtforecasting AT imtiazrangwala seasonaltomultiyearsoilmoisturedroughtforecasting AT stephenyeager seasonaltomultiyearsoilmoisturedroughtforecasting
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Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting

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