Potential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions

Abstract Background Mosquitoes are key vectors for the transmission of several diseases. Anopheles gambiae is known to transmit pathogens of malaria and filariasis. Due to several anthropogenic factors such as climate change and population growth leading to diverse land use, their distribution and d...

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Autores principales:	Isaac Omotayo Olabimi, Kayode David Ileke, Babasola Williams Adu, Temitope Emmanuel Arotolu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	SpringerOpen 2021
Materias:	Anopheles gambiae Southwest Nigeria Ecological Niche modelling Climate change Climatic suitability Zoology QL1-991
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/091237fa6a4942648a2c564830b6b61d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:091237fa6a4942648a2c564830b6b61d2021-11-28T12:22:01ZPotential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions10.1186/s41936-021-00261-82090-990Xhttps://doaj.org/article/091237fa6a4942648a2c564830b6b61d2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s41936-021-00261-8https://doaj.org/toc/2090-990XAbstract Background Mosquitoes are key vectors for the transmission of several diseases. Anopheles gambiae is known to transmit pathogens of malaria and filariasis. Due to several anthropogenic factors such as climate change and population growth leading to diverse land use, their distribution and disease spreading pattern may change. This study estimated the potential distribution and climatic suitability of An. gambiae under the present-day and future conditions across Southwest Nigeria using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM). The future scenarios assessed were based on two general circulation models (GCMs), namely community climate system model 4 (CCSM4) and geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory-climate model 3 (GFDL-CM3), in two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Methodology The occurrence data were obtained from literatures that have reported the presence of An. gambiae mosquito species in locations within the study area. Ecological niche modelling data were processed and analysed using maximum entropy algorithm implemented in MaxEnt. Result Fifty-five (55) unique occurrences of An. gambiae were used in the model calibration after data cleaning. Data analysis for the present-day habitat suitability shows that more than two-thirds (81.71%) of the study area was observed to be suitable for An. gambiae population. However, the two future GCMs showed contrasting results. The CCSM4 models indicated a slight increase in both RCPs with 2.5 and 8.5 having 81.77 and 82.34% suitability, respectively. The reverse was the case for the GFDL-CM3 models as RCPs 2.5 and 8.5 had 78.86 and 76.86%. Conclusion This study revealed that the study area is climatically suitable for An. gambiae and will continue to be so in the future irrespective of the contrasting results from the GCMs used. Since vector population is often linked with their disease transmission capacity, proper measures must be put in place to mitigate disease incidences associated with the activities of An. gambiae.Isaac Omotayo OlabimiKayode David IlekeBabasola Williams AduTemitope Emmanuel ArotoluSpringerOpenarticleAnopheles gambiaeSouthwest NigeriaEcological Niche modellingClimate changeClimatic suitabilityZoologyQL1-991ENJournal of Basic and Applied Zoology, Vol 82, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Anopheles gambiae Southwest Nigeria Ecological Niche modelling Climate change Climatic suitability Zoology QL1-991
spellingShingle	Anopheles gambiae Southwest Nigeria Ecological Niche modelling Climate change Climatic suitability Zoology QL1-991 Isaac Omotayo Olabimi Kayode David Ileke Babasola Williams Adu Temitope Emmanuel Arotolu Potential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions
description	Abstract Background Mosquitoes are key vectors for the transmission of several diseases. Anopheles gambiae is known to transmit pathogens of malaria and filariasis. Due to several anthropogenic factors such as climate change and population growth leading to diverse land use, their distribution and disease spreading pattern may change. This study estimated the potential distribution and climatic suitability of An. gambiae under the present-day and future conditions across Southwest Nigeria using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM). The future scenarios assessed were based on two general circulation models (GCMs), namely community climate system model 4 (CCSM4) and geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory-climate model 3 (GFDL-CM3), in two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Methodology The occurrence data were obtained from literatures that have reported the presence of An. gambiae mosquito species in locations within the study area. Ecological niche modelling data were processed and analysed using maximum entropy algorithm implemented in MaxEnt. Result Fifty-five (55) unique occurrences of An. gambiae were used in the model calibration after data cleaning. Data analysis for the present-day habitat suitability shows that more than two-thirds (81.71%) of the study area was observed to be suitable for An. gambiae population. However, the two future GCMs showed contrasting results. The CCSM4 models indicated a slight increase in both RCPs with 2.5 and 8.5 having 81.77 and 82.34% suitability, respectively. The reverse was the case for the GFDL-CM3 models as RCPs 2.5 and 8.5 had 78.86 and 76.86%. Conclusion This study revealed that the study area is climatically suitable for An. gambiae and will continue to be so in the future irrespective of the contrasting results from the GCMs used. Since vector population is often linked with their disease transmission capacity, proper measures must be put in place to mitigate disease incidences associated with the activities of An. gambiae.
format	article
author	Isaac Omotayo Olabimi Kayode David Ileke Babasola Williams Adu Temitope Emmanuel Arotolu
author_facet	Isaac Omotayo Olabimi Kayode David Ileke Babasola Williams Adu Temitope Emmanuel Arotolu
author_sort	Isaac Omotayo Olabimi
title	Potential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions
title_short	Potential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions
title_full	Potential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions
title_fullStr	Potential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions
title_full_unstemmed	Potential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions
title_sort	potential distribution of the primary malaria vector anopheles gambiae giles [diptera: culicidae] in southwest nigeria under current and future climatic conditions
publisher	SpringerOpen
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/091237fa6a4942648a2c564830b6b61d
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Potential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions

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