The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations

Abstract Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Inste...

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Autores principales: Shengzhi Huang, Guoyong Leng, Qiang Huang, Yangyang Xie, Saiyan Liu, Erhao Meng, Pei Li
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Publicado: Nature Portfolio 2017
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:092a186d6d514aeca603176a609f26522021-12-02T11:52:16ZThe asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations10.1038/s41598-017-06302-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/092a186d6d514aeca603176a609f26522017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06302-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.Shengzhi HuangGuoyong LengQiang HuangYangyang XieSaiyan LiuErhao MengPei LiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2017)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Shengzhi Huang
Guoyong Leng
Qiang Huang
Yangyang Xie
Saiyan Liu
Erhao Meng
Pei Li
The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations
description Abstract Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.
format article
author Shengzhi Huang
Guoyong Leng
Qiang Huang
Yangyang Xie
Saiyan Liu
Erhao Meng
Pei Li
author_facet Shengzhi Huang
Guoyong Leng
Qiang Huang
Yangyang Xie
Saiyan Liu
Erhao Meng
Pei Li
author_sort Shengzhi Huang
title The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations
title_short The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations
title_full The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations
title_fullStr The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations
title_full_unstemmed The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations
title_sort asymmetric impact of global warming on us drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations
publisher Nature Portfolio
publishDate 2017
url https://doaj.org/article/092a186d6d514aeca603176a609f2652
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