Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada

Abstract Ecosystem carbon carrying capacity (CCC) is determined by prevailing climate and natural disturbance regimes, conditions that are projected to change significantly. The interaction of changing climate and its effects on disturbance regimes is expected to affect forest regeneration and growt...

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Autores principales:	Shuang Liang, Matthew D. Hurteau, Anthony LeRoy Westerling
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/09d55663bfea47da9f160ee81fabc4e8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:09d55663bfea47da9f160ee81fabc4e82021-12-02T12:31:59ZPotential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada10.1038/s41598-017-02686-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/09d55663bfea47da9f160ee81fabc4e82017-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02686-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Ecosystem carbon carrying capacity (CCC) is determined by prevailing climate and natural disturbance regimes, conditions that are projected to change significantly. The interaction of changing climate and its effects on disturbance regimes is expected to affect forest regeneration and growth, which may diminish forest carbon (C) stocks and uptake. We modeled landscape C dynamics over 590 years along the latitudinal gradient of the U.S. Sierra Nevada Mountains under climate and area burned by large wildfires projected by late 21st century. We assumed climate and wildfire stabilize at late-21st century conditions (2090–2100) to facilitate analysis of lags between warming and changing CCC. We show that compared with historical (1980–2010) climate and wildfire conditions, projected scenarios would drive a significant decrease of up to 73% in mean total ecosystem carbon (TEC) by the end of the 590-year simulation. Tree regeneration failure due to intensified growing season dryness and increased area burned would substantially decrease forested area, transitioning the system from C sink to source. Our results demonstrate the potential for a lower CCC in the system due to extensive vegetation type conversion from forest to non-forest types, and suggest a decline in the contribution of Sierra Nevada forests to U.S. C sink.Shuang LiangMatthew D. HurteauAnthony LeRoy WesterlingNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Shuang Liang Matthew D. Hurteau Anthony LeRoy Westerling Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada
description	Abstract Ecosystem carbon carrying capacity (CCC) is determined by prevailing climate and natural disturbance regimes, conditions that are projected to change significantly. The interaction of changing climate and its effects on disturbance regimes is expected to affect forest regeneration and growth, which may diminish forest carbon (C) stocks and uptake. We modeled landscape C dynamics over 590 years along the latitudinal gradient of the U.S. Sierra Nevada Mountains under climate and area burned by large wildfires projected by late 21st century. We assumed climate and wildfire stabilize at late-21st century conditions (2090–2100) to facilitate analysis of lags between warming and changing CCC. We show that compared with historical (1980–2010) climate and wildfire conditions, projected scenarios would drive a significant decrease of up to 73% in mean total ecosystem carbon (TEC) by the end of the 590-year simulation. Tree regeneration failure due to intensified growing season dryness and increased area burned would substantially decrease forested area, transitioning the system from C sink to source. Our results demonstrate the potential for a lower CCC in the system due to extensive vegetation type conversion from forest to non-forest types, and suggest a decline in the contribution of Sierra Nevada forests to U.S. C sink.
format	article
author	Shuang Liang Matthew D. Hurteau Anthony LeRoy Westerling
author_facet	Shuang Liang Matthew D. Hurteau Anthony LeRoy Westerling
author_sort	Shuang Liang
title	Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada
title_short	Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada
title_full	Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada
title_fullStr	Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada
title_full_unstemmed	Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada
title_sort	potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the sierra nevada
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/09d55663bfea47da9f160ee81fabc4e8
work_keys_str_mv	AT shuangliang potentialdeclineincarboncarryingcapacityunderprojectedclimatewildfireinteractionsinthesierranevada AT matthewdhurteau potentialdeclineincarboncarryingcapacityunderprojectedclimatewildfireinteractionsinthesierranevada AT anthonyleroywesterling potentialdeclineincarboncarryingcapacityunderprojectedclimatewildfireinteractionsinthesierranevada
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Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada

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