Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability

Abstract Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of on...

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Autores principales:	Timothy M. Lenton, Vasilis Dakos, Sebastian Bathiany, Marten Scheffer
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0a0279c0ba25468fa6d09bda0330fc4c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0a0279c0ba25468fa6d09bda0330fc4c2021-12-02T11:53:04ZObserved trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0a0279c0ba25468fa6d09bda0330fc4c2017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957–2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic ‘teleconnections’ we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean.Timothy M. LentonVasilis DakosSebastian BathianyMarten SchefferNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Timothy M. Lenton Vasilis Dakos Sebastian Bathiany Marten Scheffer Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
description	Abstract Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957–2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic ‘teleconnections’ we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean.
format	article
author	Timothy M. Lenton Vasilis Dakos Sebastian Bathiany Marten Scheffer
author_facet	Timothy M. Lenton Vasilis Dakos Sebastian Bathiany Marten Scheffer
author_sort	Timothy M. Lenton
title	Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
title_short	Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
title_full	Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
title_fullStr	Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
title_full_unstemmed	Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
title_sort	observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/0a0279c0ba25468fa6d09bda0330fc4c
work_keys_str_mv	AT timothymlenton observedtrendsinthemagnitudeandpersistenceofmonthlytemperaturevariability AT vasilisdakos observedtrendsinthemagnitudeandpersistenceofmonthlytemperaturevariability AT sebastianbathiany observedtrendsinthemagnitudeandpersistenceofmonthlytemperaturevariability AT martenscheffer observedtrendsinthemagnitudeandpersistenceofmonthlytemperaturevariability
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Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability

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