Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX

The prediction of solar radiation has a significant role in several fields such as photovoltaic (PV) power production and micro grid management. The interest in solar radiation prediction is increasing nowadays so efficient prediction can greatly improve the performance of these different applicatio...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Ines Sansa, Zina Boussaada, Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	solar radiation PV power prediction ARMA NARX hybrid model Technology T
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0a1f9f6ce58540ddb47b32f9488e5fc8
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:0a1f9f6ce58540ddb47b32f9488e5fc8
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0a1f9f6ce58540ddb47b32f9488e5fc82021-11-11T15:45:06ZSolar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX10.3390/en142169201996-1073https://doaj.org/article/0a1f9f6ce58540ddb47b32f9488e5fc82021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/6920https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073The prediction of solar radiation has a significant role in several fields such as photovoltaic (PV) power production and micro grid management. The interest in solar radiation prediction is increasing nowadays so efficient prediction can greatly improve the performance of these different applications. This paper presents a novel solar radiation prediction approach which combines two models, the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and the Nonlinear Auto Regressive with eXogenous input (NARX). This choice has been carried out in order to take the advantages of both models to produce better prediction results. The performance of the proposed hybrid model has been validated using a real database corresponding to a company located in Barcelona north. Simulation results have proven the effectiveness of this hybrid model to predict the weekly solar radiation averages. The ARMA model is suitable for small variations of solar radiation while the NARX model is appropriate for large solar radiation fluctuations.Ines SansaZina BoussaadaNajiba Mrabet BellaajMDPI AGarticlesolar radiationPV powerpredictionARMANARXhybrid modelTechnologyTENEnergies, Vol 14, Iss 6920, p 6920 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	solar radiation PV power prediction ARMA NARX hybrid model Technology T
spellingShingle	solar radiation PV power prediction ARMA NARX hybrid model Technology T Ines Sansa Zina Boussaada Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX
description	The prediction of solar radiation has a significant role in several fields such as photovoltaic (PV) power production and micro grid management. The interest in solar radiation prediction is increasing nowadays so efficient prediction can greatly improve the performance of these different applications. This paper presents a novel solar radiation prediction approach which combines two models, the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and the Nonlinear Auto Regressive with eXogenous input (NARX). This choice has been carried out in order to take the advantages of both models to produce better prediction results. The performance of the proposed hybrid model has been validated using a real database corresponding to a company located in Barcelona north. Simulation results have proven the effectiveness of this hybrid model to predict the weekly solar radiation averages. The ARMA model is suitable for small variations of solar radiation while the NARX model is appropriate for large solar radiation fluctuations.
format	article
author	Ines Sansa Zina Boussaada Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj
author_facet	Ines Sansa Zina Boussaada Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj
author_sort	Ines Sansa
title	Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX
title_short	Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX
title_full	Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX
title_fullStr	Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX
title_full_unstemmed	Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX
title_sort	solar radiation prediction using a novel hybrid model of arma and narx
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0a1f9f6ce58540ddb47b32f9488e5fc8
work_keys_str_mv	AT inessansa solarradiationpredictionusinganovelhybridmodelofarmaandnarx AT zinaboussaada solarradiationpredictionusinganovelhybridmodelofarmaandnarx AT najibamrabetbellaaj solarradiationpredictionusinganovelhybridmodelofarmaandnarx
_version_	1718434066926141440

Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX

Ejemplares similares