Long range daily ocean forecasts in the Indo-Pacific oceans with ACCESS-S1

Currently most ocean forecast systems provide daily eddy resolving predictions 7 days or so in advance. We first investigate the potential for longer range daily ocean forecast up to 28 days using the coupled system ACCESS-S1 in which the ocean component is eddy permitting. The daily ocean forecasts...

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Autores principales:	Xiaobing Zhou, Oscar Alves
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Taylor & Francis Group 2021
Materias:	long range daily ocean predictions indo-pacific access-s1 Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0b2c18b7a51344daa59687660acdff5d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0b2c18b7a51344daa59687660acdff5d2021-12-01T14:40:58ZLong range daily ocean forecasts in the Indo-Pacific oceans with ACCESS-S11600-087010.1080/16000870.2020.1870328https://doaj.org/article/0b2c18b7a51344daa59687660acdff5d2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1870328https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870Currently most ocean forecast systems provide daily eddy resolving predictions 7 days or so in advance. We first investigate the potential for longer range daily ocean forecast up to 28 days using the coupled system ACCESS-S1 in which the ocean component is eddy permitting. The daily ocean forecasts over the hindcast period 1990–2012 in the Indo-Pacific oceans have been evaluated, using persistence skill as a reference. Our results show that the sea surface temperature (SST) biases are in the range of ±0.3 °C in most regions within the first 28 days of the forecast. The model’s predicted correlation skill of SST anomaly (SSTA) is higher than persistence skill in most areas beyond the first few days up until the 28-day lead time. The skill of SSTA indices averaged in different domains suggest that the model produces more skilful predictions in the North Indian Ocean, South Indian Ocean, western tropical Pacific and Leeuwin Current regions than the corresponding persistence forecasts. The model’s SSTA prediction skill in the eastern tropical Pacific is comparable to the persistence skill which is very high. The model’s correlation skill for sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) can beat persistence skill beyond the first week and the model’s skill has a great advantage with a longer lead time. The daily prediction of the larger mesoscale eddies that shed off the East Australia Current is also investigated here. The spatial correlation between the model predicted and observed SSHA is applied to measure the model prediction skill for these eddies. Our results suggest that the averaged correlation for all forecasting cases at the same lead time is above 0.5 up to 14-day lead. It indicates that ACCESS-S1 has some skill in predicting these eddies, since the strength and track of the eddies in the Tasman Sea are highly complicated.Xiaobing ZhouOscar AlvesTaylor & Francis Grouparticlelong range daily ocean predictionsindo-pacificaccess-s1OceanographyGC1-1581Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENTellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 73, Iss 1, Pp 1-17 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	long range daily ocean predictions indo-pacific access-s1 Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	long range daily ocean predictions indo-pacific access-s1 Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Xiaobing Zhou Oscar Alves Long range daily ocean forecasts in the Indo-Pacific oceans with ACCESS-S1
description	Currently most ocean forecast systems provide daily eddy resolving predictions 7 days or so in advance. We first investigate the potential for longer range daily ocean forecast up to 28 days using the coupled system ACCESS-S1 in which the ocean component is eddy permitting. The daily ocean forecasts over the hindcast period 1990–2012 in the Indo-Pacific oceans have been evaluated, using persistence skill as a reference. Our results show that the sea surface temperature (SST) biases are in the range of ±0.3 °C in most regions within the first 28 days of the forecast. The model’s predicted correlation skill of SST anomaly (SSTA) is higher than persistence skill in most areas beyond the first few days up until the 28-day lead time. The skill of SSTA indices averaged in different domains suggest that the model produces more skilful predictions in the North Indian Ocean, South Indian Ocean, western tropical Pacific and Leeuwin Current regions than the corresponding persistence forecasts. The model’s SSTA prediction skill in the eastern tropical Pacific is comparable to the persistence skill which is very high. The model’s correlation skill for sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) can beat persistence skill beyond the first week and the model’s skill has a great advantage with a longer lead time. The daily prediction of the larger mesoscale eddies that shed off the East Australia Current is also investigated here. The spatial correlation between the model predicted and observed SSHA is applied to measure the model prediction skill for these eddies. Our results suggest that the averaged correlation for all forecasting cases at the same lead time is above 0.5 up to 14-day lead. It indicates that ACCESS-S1 has some skill in predicting these eddies, since the strength and track of the eddies in the Tasman Sea are highly complicated.
format	article
author	Xiaobing Zhou Oscar Alves
author_facet	Xiaobing Zhou Oscar Alves
author_sort	Xiaobing Zhou
title	Long range daily ocean forecasts in the Indo-Pacific oceans with ACCESS-S1
title_short	Long range daily ocean forecasts in the Indo-Pacific oceans with ACCESS-S1
title_full	Long range daily ocean forecasts in the Indo-Pacific oceans with ACCESS-S1
title_fullStr	Long range daily ocean forecasts in the Indo-Pacific oceans with ACCESS-S1
title_full_unstemmed	Long range daily ocean forecasts in the Indo-Pacific oceans with ACCESS-S1
title_sort	long range daily ocean forecasts in the indo-pacific oceans with access-s1
publisher	Taylor & Francis Group
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0b2c18b7a51344daa59687660acdff5d
work_keys_str_mv	AT xiaobingzhou longrangedailyoceanforecastsintheindopacificoceanswithaccesss1 AT oscaralves longrangedailyoceanforecastsintheindopacificoceanswithaccesss1
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Long range daily ocean forecasts in the Indo-Pacific oceans with ACCESS-S1

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