Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need for non-pharmaceutical epidemic mitigation strategies that can be effective even if they are limited in duration. Here, the authors derive analytically optimal and near-optimal time-limited strategies for limiting the epidemic peak in the Susceptible-I...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Dylan H. Morris, Fernando W. Rossine, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon A. Levin
Format: article
Language:EN
Published: Nature Portfolio 2021
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Online Access:https://doaj.org/article/0b357ff47ccb47a6ade860a79c300dba
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Summary:The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need for non-pharmaceutical epidemic mitigation strategies that can be effective even if they are limited in duration. Here, the authors derive analytically optimal and near-optimal time-limited strategies for limiting the epidemic peak in the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model and show that, due to the sensitivity of such strategies to implementation errors, timely action is fundamental to non-pharmaceutical disease control.