Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region

ABSTRACT: Background: Reducing the alcohol-attributable cancer burden in the WHO European Region is a public health priority. This study aims to estimate the number of potentially avoidable cancers in countries of the WHO European Region in 2019 for three scenarios in which current excise duties on...

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Autores principales:	Carolin Kilian, Pol Rovira, Maria Neufeld, Carina Ferreira-Borges, Harriet Rumgay, Isabelle Soerjomataram, Jürgen Rehm
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Alcohol cancer alcohol-attributable cancer taxation WHO European Region Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0b51a6ef74ba40c19b1957129b4c11e8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0b51a6ef74ba40c19b1957129b4c11e82021-12-02T05:04:18ZModelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region2666-776210.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100225https://doaj.org/article/0b51a6ef74ba40c19b1957129b4c11e82021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776221002106https://doaj.org/toc/2666-7762ABSTRACT: Background: Reducing the alcohol-attributable cancer burden in the WHO European Region is a public health priority. This study aims to estimate the number of potentially avoidable cancers in countries of the WHO European Region in 2019 for three scenarios in which current excise duties on alcoholic beverages were increased by 20%, 50%, or 100%. Methods: Mean prices and excise duties for beer, wine, and spirits in the Member States of the WHO European Region in 2020 were used as the baseline scenario. We assumed that increases in excise duties (20%, 50%, and 100%) were fully incorporated into the consumer price. Beverage-specific price elasticities of demand, with lower elasticities for heavy drinkers, were obtained from a meta-analysis. Model estimates were applied to alcohol exposure data for 2009 and cancer incidence and mortality rates for 2019, assuming a 10-year lag time between alcohol intake and cancer development and mortality. Findings: Of 180,887 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 160,595-201,705) new alcohol-attributable cancer cases and 85,130 (95% CI: 74,920-95,523) deaths in the WHO European Region in 2019, 5·9% (95% CI: 5·6-6·4) and 5·7% (95% CI: 5·4-6·1), respectively, could have been avoided by increasing excise duties by 100%. According to our model, alcohol-attributable female breast cancer and colorectal cancer contributed most to the avoidable cases and deaths. Interpretation: Doubling current alcohol excise duties could avoid just under 6% (or 10,700 cases and 4,850 deaths) of new alcohol-attributable cancers within the WHO European Region, particularly in Member States of the European Union where excise duties are in many cases very low. Funding: None.Carolin KilianPol RoviraMaria NeufeldCarina Ferreira-BorgesHarriet RumgayIsabelle SoerjomataramJürgen RehmElsevierarticleAlcoholcanceralcohol-attributable cancertaxationWHO European RegionPublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENThe Lancet Regional Health. Europe, Vol 11, Iss , Pp 100225- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Alcohol cancer alcohol-attributable cancer taxation WHO European Region Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Alcohol cancer alcohol-attributable cancer taxation WHO European Region Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Carolin Kilian Pol Rovira Maria Neufeld Carina Ferreira-Borges Harriet Rumgay Isabelle Soerjomataram Jürgen Rehm Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region
description	ABSTRACT: Background: Reducing the alcohol-attributable cancer burden in the WHO European Region is a public health priority. This study aims to estimate the number of potentially avoidable cancers in countries of the WHO European Region in 2019 for three scenarios in which current excise duties on alcoholic beverages were increased by 20%, 50%, or 100%. Methods: Mean prices and excise duties for beer, wine, and spirits in the Member States of the WHO European Region in 2020 were used as the baseline scenario. We assumed that increases in excise duties (20%, 50%, and 100%) were fully incorporated into the consumer price. Beverage-specific price elasticities of demand, with lower elasticities for heavy drinkers, were obtained from a meta-analysis. Model estimates were applied to alcohol exposure data for 2009 and cancer incidence and mortality rates for 2019, assuming a 10-year lag time between alcohol intake and cancer development and mortality. Findings: Of 180,887 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 160,595-201,705) new alcohol-attributable cancer cases and 85,130 (95% CI: 74,920-95,523) deaths in the WHO European Region in 2019, 5·9% (95% CI: 5·6-6·4) and 5·7% (95% CI: 5·4-6·1), respectively, could have been avoided by increasing excise duties by 100%. According to our model, alcohol-attributable female breast cancer and colorectal cancer contributed most to the avoidable cases and deaths. Interpretation: Doubling current alcohol excise duties could avoid just under 6% (or 10,700 cases and 4,850 deaths) of new alcohol-attributable cancers within the WHO European Region, particularly in Member States of the European Union where excise duties are in many cases very low. Funding: None.
format	article
author	Carolin Kilian Pol Rovira Maria Neufeld Carina Ferreira-Borges Harriet Rumgay Isabelle Soerjomataram Jürgen Rehm
author_facet	Carolin Kilian Pol Rovira Maria Neufeld Carina Ferreira-Borges Harriet Rumgay Isabelle Soerjomataram Jürgen Rehm
author_sort	Carolin Kilian
title	Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region
title_short	Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region
title_full	Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region
title_fullStr	Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region
title_sort	modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the who european region
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0b51a6ef74ba40c19b1957129b4c11e8
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Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region

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