Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.

Despite nearly two centuries of study, the fundamental transmission dynamic properties of cholera remain incompletely characterized. We used historical time-series data on the spread of cholera in twelve European and North American cities during the second cholera pandemic, as reported in Amariah Br...

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Autores principales:	Christina H Chan, Ashleigh R Tuite, David N Fisman
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0bcfd2d1fa7f4036b2909d2ad13ea809
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0bcfd2d1fa7f4036b2909d2ad13ea8092021-11-18T08:58:26ZHistorical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0072498https://doaj.org/article/0bcfd2d1fa7f4036b2909d2ad13ea8092013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23991117/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Despite nearly two centuries of study, the fundamental transmission dynamic properties of cholera remain incompletely characterized. We used historical time-series data on the spread of cholera in twelve European and North American cities during the second cholera pandemic, as reported in Amariah Brigham's 1832 A Treatise on Epidemic Cholera, to parameterize simple mathematical models of cholera transmission. Richards growth models were used to derive estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) (median: 16.0, range: 1.9 to 550.9) and the proportion of unrecognized cases (mean: 96.3%, SD: 0.04%). Heterogeneity in model-generated R0 estimates was consistent with variability in cholera dynamics described by contemporary investigators and may represent differences in the nature of cholera spread. While subject to limitations associated with measurement and the absence of microbiological diagnosis, historical epidemic data are a potentially rich source for understanding pathogen dynamics in the absence of control measures, particularly when used in conjunction with simple and readily interpretable mathematical models.Christina H ChanAshleigh R TuiteDavid N FismanPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 8, p e72498 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Christina H Chan Ashleigh R Tuite David N Fisman Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.
description	Despite nearly two centuries of study, the fundamental transmission dynamic properties of cholera remain incompletely characterized. We used historical time-series data on the spread of cholera in twelve European and North American cities during the second cholera pandemic, as reported in Amariah Brigham's 1832 A Treatise on Epidemic Cholera, to parameterize simple mathematical models of cholera transmission. Richards growth models were used to derive estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) (median: 16.0, range: 1.9 to 550.9) and the proportion of unrecognized cases (mean: 96.3%, SD: 0.04%). Heterogeneity in model-generated R0 estimates was consistent with variability in cholera dynamics described by contemporary investigators and may represent differences in the nature of cholera spread. While subject to limitations associated with measurement and the absence of microbiological diagnosis, historical epidemic data are a potentially rich source for understanding pathogen dynamics in the absence of control measures, particularly when used in conjunction with simple and readily interpretable mathematical models.
format	article
author	Christina H Chan Ashleigh R Tuite David N Fisman
author_facet	Christina H Chan Ashleigh R Tuite David N Fisman
author_sort	Christina H Chan
title	Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.
title_short	Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.
title_full	Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.
title_fullStr	Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.
title_full_unstemmed	Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.
title_sort	historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/0bcfd2d1fa7f4036b2909d2ad13ea809
work_keys_str_mv	AT christinahchan historicalepidemiologyofthesecondcholerapandemicrelevancetopresentdaydiseasedynamics AT ashleighrtuite historicalepidemiologyofthesecondcholerapandemicrelevancetopresentdaydiseasedynamics AT davidnfisman historicalepidemiologyofthesecondcholerapandemicrelevancetopresentdaydiseasedynamics
_version_	1718421065104883712

Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.

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