Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model

Abstract We established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction n...

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Autores principales:	Zuiyuan Guo, Dan Xiao
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2020
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0bde16bdd37f4957919a12ac1a9f2a7c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0bde16bdd37f4957919a12ac1a9f2a7c2021-12-02T12:42:19ZAnalysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model10.1038/s41598-020-76969-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0bde16bdd37f4957919a12ac1a9f2a7c2020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76969-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction number (R 0) and number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R 0 at the initial stage of the epidemic was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.82–5.17). Before the traffic lockdown was implemented in Hubei, 2000 (95% CI 1982–2030) infectors and patients had left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that if the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in the whole country would have increased by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was imposed 1 day in advance, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would have decreased by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. The intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed the human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.Zuiyuan GuoDan XiaoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Zuiyuan Guo Dan Xiao Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model
description	Abstract We established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction number (R 0) and number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R 0 at the initial stage of the epidemic was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.82–5.17). Before the traffic lockdown was implemented in Hubei, 2000 (95% CI 1982–2030) infectors and patients had left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that if the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in the whole country would have increased by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was imposed 1 day in advance, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would have decreased by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. The intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed the human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
format	article
author	Zuiyuan Guo Dan Xiao
author_facet	Zuiyuan Guo Dan Xiao
author_sort	Zuiyuan Guo
title	Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model
title_short	Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model
title_full	Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model
title_fullStr	Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model
title_full_unstemmed	Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model
title_sort	analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in china based on an individual-based model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/0bde16bdd37f4957919a12ac1a9f2a7c
work_keys_str_mv	AT zuiyuanguo analysisandpredictionofthecoronavirusdiseaseepidemicinchinabasedonanindividualbasedmodel AT danxiao analysisandpredictionofthecoronavirusdiseaseepidemicinchinabasedonanindividualbasedmodel
_version_	1718393665888452608

Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model

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