A lattice model for influenza spreading.

We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individua...

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Autores principales:	Antonella Liccardo, Annalisa Fierro
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0beb2d58085d40f5b9a489a5fcba000e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0beb2d58085d40f5b9a489a5fcba000e2021-11-18T07:44:38ZA lattice model for influenza spreading.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0063935https://doaj.org/article/0beb2d58085d40f5b9a489a5fcba000e2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23717512/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.Antonella LiccardoAnnalisa FierroPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 5, p e63935 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Antonella Liccardo Annalisa Fierro A lattice model for influenza spreading.
description	We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.
format	article
author	Antonella Liccardo Annalisa Fierro
author_facet	Antonella Liccardo Annalisa Fierro
author_sort	Antonella Liccardo
title	A lattice model for influenza spreading.
title_short	A lattice model for influenza spreading.
title_full	A lattice model for influenza spreading.
title_fullStr	A lattice model for influenza spreading.
title_full_unstemmed	A lattice model for influenza spreading.
title_sort	lattice model for influenza spreading.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/0beb2d58085d40f5b9a489a5fcba000e
work_keys_str_mv	AT antonellaliccardo alatticemodelforinfluenzaspreading AT annalisafierro alatticemodelforinfluenzaspreading AT antonellaliccardo latticemodelforinfluenzaspreading AT annalisafierro latticemodelforinfluenzaspreading
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A lattice model for influenza spreading.

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