Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming

Abstract Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects of climate change on the demogr...

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Autores principales:	Luciana Shigihara Lima, Douglas Francisco Marcolino Gherardi, Luciano Ponzi Pezzi, Leilane Gonçalves dos Passos, Clarissa Akemi Kajiya Endo, Juan Pablo Quimbayo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0bf7f8bc844f4c87a59f222791e2eba0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0bf7f8bc844f4c87a59f222791e2eba02021-12-02T15:55:21ZPotential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming10.1038/s41598-021-89192-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0bf7f8bc844f4c87a59f222791e2eba02021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89192-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects of climate change on the demographic connectivity of parrotfishes in nine MPAs in the South Atlantic through downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model running the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory. Results indicate a tropicalization scenario over the tropical southwest Atlantic following an increase of sea surface temperature (SST) between 1.8 and 4.5 °C and changes in mean surface currents between − 0.6 to 0.5 m s−1 relative to present conditions. High mortality rates will reduce demographic connectivity and increase the isolation of oceanic islands. The simulation of organismal response to ocean warming shows that acclimation can significantly improve (p < 0.001) particle survival, promoting connectivity and tropicalization of MPAs, with potential impacts on their functional integrity and long-term resilience.Luciana Shigihara LimaDouglas Francisco Marcolino GherardiLuciano Ponzi PezziLeilane Gonçalves dos PassosClarissa Akemi Kajiya EndoJuan Pablo QuimbayoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Luciana Shigihara Lima Douglas Francisco Marcolino Gherardi Luciano Ponzi Pezzi Leilane Gonçalves dos Passos Clarissa Akemi Kajiya Endo Juan Pablo Quimbayo Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming
description	Abstract Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects of climate change on the demographic connectivity of parrotfishes in nine MPAs in the South Atlantic through downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model running the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory. Results indicate a tropicalization scenario over the tropical southwest Atlantic following an increase of sea surface temperature (SST) between 1.8 and 4.5 °C and changes in mean surface currents between − 0.6 to 0.5 m s−1 relative to present conditions. High mortality rates will reduce demographic connectivity and increase the isolation of oceanic islands. The simulation of organismal response to ocean warming shows that acclimation can significantly improve (p < 0.001) particle survival, promoting connectivity and tropicalization of MPAs, with potential impacts on their functional integrity and long-term resilience.
format	article
author	Luciana Shigihara Lima Douglas Francisco Marcolino Gherardi Luciano Ponzi Pezzi Leilane Gonçalves dos Passos Clarissa Akemi Kajiya Endo Juan Pablo Quimbayo
author_facet	Luciana Shigihara Lima Douglas Francisco Marcolino Gherardi Luciano Ponzi Pezzi Leilane Gonçalves dos Passos Clarissa Akemi Kajiya Endo Juan Pablo Quimbayo
author_sort	Luciana Shigihara Lima
title	Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming
title_short	Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming
title_full	Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming
title_fullStr	Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming
title_full_unstemmed	Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming
title_sort	potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0bf7f8bc844f4c87a59f222791e2eba0
work_keys_str_mv	AT lucianashigiharalima potentialchangesintheconnectivityofmarineprotectedareasdrivenbyextremeoceanwarming AT douglasfranciscomarcolinogherardi potentialchangesintheconnectivityofmarineprotectedareasdrivenbyextremeoceanwarming AT lucianoponzipezzi potentialchangesintheconnectivityofmarineprotectedareasdrivenbyextremeoceanwarming AT leilanegoncalvesdospassos potentialchangesintheconnectivityofmarineprotectedareasdrivenbyextremeoceanwarming AT clarissaakemikajiyaendo potentialchangesintheconnectivityofmarineprotectedareasdrivenbyextremeoceanwarming AT juanpabloquimbayo potentialchangesintheconnectivityofmarineprotectedareasdrivenbyextremeoceanwarming
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Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming

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