Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection

Abstract Following the 2013–14 outbreak in French Polynesia, the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic spread widely to many countries where Aedes Aegypti as the main transmitting vector is endemic. The lack of a second wave of ZIKV infection in most affected regions may suggest that a sufficiently high level...

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Autores principales:	Seyed M. Moghadas, Affan Shoukat, Aquino L. Espindola, Rafael S. Pereira, Fatima Abdirizak, Marek Laskowski, Cecile Viboud, Gerardo Chowell
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0c6e94342b604f5e8590dfd26d93f1aa
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0c6e94342b604f5e8590dfd26d93f1aa2021-12-02T11:53:03ZAsymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection10.1038/s41598-017-05013-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0c6e94342b604f5e8590dfd26d93f1aa2017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05013-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Following the 2013–14 outbreak in French Polynesia, the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic spread widely to many countries where Aedes Aegypti as the main transmitting vector is endemic. The lack of a second wave of ZIKV infection in most affected regions may suggest that a sufficiently high level of herd immunity was reached during the first wave. We developed an agent-based transmission model to investigate the role of asymptomatic infection on the likelihood of observing a second wave, while accounting for its relative transmissibility. We found that, as the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic infection increases, a second wave is more likely to occur, despite an increase in the attack rate during the first wave. When the reproduction number varies between 1.9 and 2.8 based on estimates for Antioquia, Colombia, the attack rate varies between 4% and 26% for a low (below 10%) effectiveness of interventions in blunting the ZIKV transmission from symptomatic cases to mosquitoes. Moreover, the fraction of cases due to sexual transmission is estimated below 4% of the cumulative incidence. Our analyses underscore the need to quantify the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections, without which the overall attack rates and the level of herd immunity cannot be accurately estimated.Seyed M. MoghadasAffan ShoukatAquino L. EspindolaRafael S. PereiraFatima AbdirizakMarek LaskowskiCecile ViboudGerardo ChowellNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Seyed M. Moghadas Affan Shoukat Aquino L. Espindola Rafael S. Pereira Fatima Abdirizak Marek Laskowski Cecile Viboud Gerardo Chowell Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection
description	Abstract Following the 2013–14 outbreak in French Polynesia, the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic spread widely to many countries where Aedes Aegypti as the main transmitting vector is endemic. The lack of a second wave of ZIKV infection in most affected regions may suggest that a sufficiently high level of herd immunity was reached during the first wave. We developed an agent-based transmission model to investigate the role of asymptomatic infection on the likelihood of observing a second wave, while accounting for its relative transmissibility. We found that, as the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic infection increases, a second wave is more likely to occur, despite an increase in the attack rate during the first wave. When the reproduction number varies between 1.9 and 2.8 based on estimates for Antioquia, Colombia, the attack rate varies between 4% and 26% for a low (below 10%) effectiveness of interventions in blunting the ZIKV transmission from symptomatic cases to mosquitoes. Moreover, the fraction of cases due to sexual transmission is estimated below 4% of the cumulative incidence. Our analyses underscore the need to quantify the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections, without which the overall attack rates and the level of herd immunity cannot be accurately estimated.
format	article
author	Seyed M. Moghadas Affan Shoukat Aquino L. Espindola Rafael S. Pereira Fatima Abdirizak Marek Laskowski Cecile Viboud Gerardo Chowell
author_facet	Seyed M. Moghadas Affan Shoukat Aquino L. Espindola Rafael S. Pereira Fatima Abdirizak Marek Laskowski Cecile Viboud Gerardo Chowell
author_sort	Seyed M. Moghadas
title	Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection
title_short	Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection
title_full	Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection
title_fullStr	Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection
title_full_unstemmed	Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection
title_sort	asymptomatic transmission and the dynamics of zika infection
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/0c6e94342b604f5e8590dfd26d93f1aa
work_keys_str_mv	AT seyedmmoghadas asymptomatictransmissionandthedynamicsofzikainfection AT affanshoukat asymptomatictransmissionandthedynamicsofzikainfection AT aquinolespindola asymptomatictransmissionandthedynamicsofzikainfection AT rafaelspereira asymptomatictransmissionandthedynamicsofzikainfection AT fatimaabdirizak asymptomatictransmissionandthedynamicsofzikainfection AT mareklaskowski asymptomatictransmissionandthedynamicsofzikainfection AT cecileviboud asymptomatictransmissionandthedynamicsofzikainfection AT gerardochowell asymptomatictransmissionandthedynamicsofzikainfection
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Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection

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