The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics
Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seropre...
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Nature Portfolio
2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:0c8e3153d844405baaa3d65b65d428d92021-12-02T17:23:47ZThe real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics10.1038/s41598-021-92131-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0c8e3153d844405baaa3d65b65d428d92021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-92131-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence in Occitania after the first lockdown. The recent use of serological tests to measure the effective seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Occitania has led to a seroprevalence around 2.4%. This implies to review the parameters of our model to conclude at a lower than expected virus transmission rate, which may be due to infectivity varying with the patient’s symptoms or to a constraint due to an uneven population geographical distribution.Chloé DimeglioJean-Michel LoubesMarcel MiedougéFabrice HerinJean-Marc SoulatJacques IzopetNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-5 (2021) |
| institution |
DOAJ |
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DOAJ |
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EN |
| topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
| spellingShingle |
Medicine R Science Q Chloé Dimeglio Jean-Michel Loubes Marcel Miedougé Fabrice Herin Jean-Marc Soulat Jacques Izopet The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics |
| description |
Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence in Occitania after the first lockdown. The recent use of serological tests to measure the effective seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Occitania has led to a seroprevalence around 2.4%. This implies to review the parameters of our model to conclude at a lower than expected virus transmission rate, which may be due to infectivity varying with the patient’s symptoms or to a constraint due to an uneven population geographical distribution. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Chloé Dimeglio Jean-Michel Loubes Marcel Miedougé Fabrice Herin Jean-Marc Soulat Jacques Izopet |
| author_facet |
Chloé Dimeglio Jean-Michel Loubes Marcel Miedougé Fabrice Herin Jean-Marc Soulat Jacques Izopet |
| author_sort |
Chloé Dimeglio |
| title |
The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics |
| title_short |
The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics |
| title_full |
The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics |
| title_fullStr |
The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The real seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in France and its consequences for virus dynamics |
| title_sort |
real seroprevalence of sars-cov-2 in france and its consequences for virus dynamics |
| publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/0c8e3153d844405baaa3d65b65d428d9 |
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