Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.

Climate change is likely to have severe effects on water availability in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River, Upper Blue Nile Basin. The Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) was used to downscale the HadCM3 (Hadley centre Climate...

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Autores principales:	Yihun Taddele Dile, Ronny Berndtsson, Shimelis G Setegn
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0dbe1300dced42fdb115dc9755837635
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0dbe1300dced42fdb115dc97558376352021-11-18T08:49:32ZHydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0079296https://doaj.org/article/0dbe1300dced42fdb115dc97558376352013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24250755/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Climate change is likely to have severe effects on water availability in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River, Upper Blue Nile Basin. The Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) was used to downscale the HadCM3 (Hadley centre Climate Model 3) Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario data into finer scale resolution. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated, and validated. SDSM downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to the SWAT model. The climate projection analysis was done by dividing the period 2010-2100 into three time windows with each 30 years of data. The period 1990-2001 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that annual mean precipitation may decrease in the first 30-year period but increase in the following two 30-year periods. The decrease in mean monthly precipitation may be as much as about -30% during 2010-2040 but the increase may be more than +30% in 2070-2100. The impact of climate change may cause a decrease in mean monthly flow volume between -40% to -50% during 2010-2040 but may increase by more than the double during 2070-2100. Climate change appears to have negligible effect on low flow conditions of the river. Seasonal mean flow volume, however, may increase by more than the double and +30% to +40% for the Belg (small rainy season) and Kiremit (main rainy season) periods, respectively. Overall, it appears that climate change will result in an annual increase in flow volume for the Gilgel Abay River. The increase in flow is likely to have considerable importance for local small scale irrigation activities. Moreover, it will help harnessing a significant amount of water for ongoing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.Yihun Taddele DileRonny BerndtssonShimelis G SetegnPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 10, p e79296 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yihun Taddele Dile Ronny Berndtsson Shimelis G Setegn Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.
description	Climate change is likely to have severe effects on water availability in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River, Upper Blue Nile Basin. The Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) was used to downscale the HadCM3 (Hadley centre Climate Model 3) Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario data into finer scale resolution. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated, and validated. SDSM downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to the SWAT model. The climate projection analysis was done by dividing the period 2010-2100 into three time windows with each 30 years of data. The period 1990-2001 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that annual mean precipitation may decrease in the first 30-year period but increase in the following two 30-year periods. The decrease in mean monthly precipitation may be as much as about -30% during 2010-2040 but the increase may be more than +30% in 2070-2100. The impact of climate change may cause a decrease in mean monthly flow volume between -40% to -50% during 2010-2040 but may increase by more than the double during 2070-2100. Climate change appears to have negligible effect on low flow conditions of the river. Seasonal mean flow volume, however, may increase by more than the double and +30% to +40% for the Belg (small rainy season) and Kiremit (main rainy season) periods, respectively. Overall, it appears that climate change will result in an annual increase in flow volume for the Gilgel Abay River. The increase in flow is likely to have considerable importance for local small scale irrigation activities. Moreover, it will help harnessing a significant amount of water for ongoing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.
format	article
author	Yihun Taddele Dile Ronny Berndtsson Shimelis G Setegn
author_facet	Yihun Taddele Dile Ronny Berndtsson Shimelis G Setegn
author_sort	Yihun Taddele Dile
title	Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.
title_short	Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.
title_full	Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.
title_fullStr	Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.
title_full_unstemmed	Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.
title_sort	hydrological response to climate change for gilgel abay river, in the lake tana basin -upper blue nile basin of ethiopia.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/0dbe1300dced42fdb115dc9755837635
work_keys_str_mv	AT yihuntaddeledile hydrologicalresponsetoclimatechangeforgilgelabayriverinthelaketanabasinupperbluenilebasinofethiopia AT ronnyberndtsson hydrologicalresponsetoclimatechangeforgilgelabayriverinthelaketanabasinupperbluenilebasinofethiopia AT shimelisgsetegn hydrologicalresponsetoclimatechangeforgilgelabayriverinthelaketanabasinupperbluenilebasinofethiopia
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Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.

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