Agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations

Abstract The first human infected with the Covid-19 virus was traced to a seafood market in Wuhan, China. Research shows that there are comparable types of viruses found in different and mutually distant areas. This raises several questions: what if the virus originated in another location? How will...

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Autores principales:	Mijat Kustudic, Ben Niu, Qianying Liu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0def32877e5746f79737a4a82384dee1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0def32877e5746f79737a4a82384dee12021-12-02T18:49:22ZAgent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations10.1038/s41598-021-95336-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0def32877e5746f79737a4a82384dee12021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95336-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The first human infected with the Covid-19 virus was traced to a seafood market in Wuhan, China. Research shows that there are comparable types of viruses found in different and mutually distant areas. This raises several questions: what if the virus originated in another location? How will future waves of epidemics behave if they originate from different locations with a smaller/larger population than Wuhan? To explore these questions, we implement an agent-based model within fractal cities. Cities radiate gravitational social attraction based on their Zipfian population. The probability and predictability of contagion events are analyzed by examining fractal dimensions and lacunarity. Results show that weak gravitational forces of small locations help dissipate infections across country quicker if the pathogen had originated from that location. Gravitational forces of large cities help contain infections within them if they are the starting locations for the pathogen. Greater connectedness and symmetry allow for a more predictable epidemic outcome since there are no obstructions to spreading. To test our hypothesis, we implement datasets from two countries, Sierra Leone and Liberia, and two diseases, Ebola and Covid-19, and obtain the same results.Mijat KustudicBen NiuQianying LiuNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Mijat Kustudic Ben Niu Qianying Liu Agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations
description	Abstract The first human infected with the Covid-19 virus was traced to a seafood market in Wuhan, China. Research shows that there are comparable types of viruses found in different and mutually distant areas. This raises several questions: what if the virus originated in another location? How will future waves of epidemics behave if they originate from different locations with a smaller/larger population than Wuhan? To explore these questions, we implement an agent-based model within fractal cities. Cities radiate gravitational social attraction based on their Zipfian population. The probability and predictability of contagion events are analyzed by examining fractal dimensions and lacunarity. Results show that weak gravitational forces of small locations help dissipate infections across country quicker if the pathogen had originated from that location. Gravitational forces of large cities help contain infections within them if they are the starting locations for the pathogen. Greater connectedness and symmetry allow for a more predictable epidemic outcome since there are no obstructions to spreading. To test our hypothesis, we implement datasets from two countries, Sierra Leone and Liberia, and two diseases, Ebola and Covid-19, and obtain the same results.
format	article
author	Mijat Kustudic Ben Niu Qianying Liu
author_facet	Mijat Kustudic Ben Niu Qianying Liu
author_sort	Mijat Kustudic
title	Agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations
title_short	Agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations
title_full	Agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations
title_fullStr	Agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations
title_full_unstemmed	Agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations
title_sort	agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0def32877e5746f79737a4a82384dee1
work_keys_str_mv	AT mijatkustudic agentbasedanalysisofcontagioneventsaccordingtosourcinglocations AT benniu agentbasedanalysisofcontagioneventsaccordingtosourcinglocations AT qianyingliu agentbasedanalysisofcontagioneventsaccordingtosourcinglocations
_version_	1718377545990144000

Agent-based analysis of contagion events according to sourcing locations

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