Assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate

Most of the existing studies on meteorological drought suggest more intense and frequent drought events due to changing climate. However, basin-scale assessment of future agricultural drought is lacking due to many reasons. In this study, the intensity and frequency of future agricultural drought (c...

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Autores principales:	Mayank Suman, Rajib Maity
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	agricultural drought climate change coordinated regional downscaling experiment (cordex) future assessment standardized soil moisture index (ssmi) Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0e27e38b3ee442afb1d563b5b7114588
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0e27e38b3ee442afb1d563b5b71145882021-11-05T19:07:31ZAssessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.369https://doaj.org/article/0e27e38b3ee442afb1d563b5b71145882021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/6/2400https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Most of the existing studies on meteorological drought suggest more intense and frequent drought events due to changing climate. However, basin-scale assessment of future agricultural drought is lacking due to many reasons. In this study, the intensity and frequency of future agricultural drought (characterized by the Standardized Soil Moisture Index, SSMI) for 226 sub-basins across India are analyzed, and vulnerable basins are identified. The prediction of the future agricultural drought status is achieved using the wavelet-based drought temporal consequence modeling of meteorological drought with the best performing bias-corrected Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations, selected by Multi-Criteria Decision-Making frameworks. This study reveals a geographically contrasting change in future agricultural drought that indicates more intense agricultural drought in north, north-east, and central India as compared with south India. The area under drought is also expected to increase, and about 20 and 50% of the Indian mainland is expected to suffer from extreme (SSMI ≤ −2) and moderate (SSMI ≤ −1) agricultural drought conditions by the end of this century. Sub-basins lying in north and central India are expected to have a longer time under drought conditions. Thus, the findings of this study will be useful for future planning and preparedness against agricultural productivity. HIGHLIGHTS Future agricultural drought status reveals new insights into its spatial variation.; The concept of drought translation is a useful one for making use of the best potential of climate model simulations.; More intense droughts in north, north-east and central India are expected as compared with south India.; In future, about 20 and 50% of the area in India is expected to face extreme and moderate agricultural droughts, respectively.;Mayank SumanRajib MaityIWA Publishingarticleagricultural droughtclimate changecoordinated regional downscaling experiment (cordex)future assessmentstandardized soil moisture index (ssmi)Environmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 2400-2421 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	agricultural drought climate change coordinated regional downscaling experiment (cordex) future assessment standardized soil moisture index (ssmi) Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	agricultural drought climate change coordinated regional downscaling experiment (cordex) future assessment standardized soil moisture index (ssmi) Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Mayank Suman Rajib Maity Assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate
description	Most of the existing studies on meteorological drought suggest more intense and frequent drought events due to changing climate. However, basin-scale assessment of future agricultural drought is lacking due to many reasons. In this study, the intensity and frequency of future agricultural drought (characterized by the Standardized Soil Moisture Index, SSMI) for 226 sub-basins across India are analyzed, and vulnerable basins are identified. The prediction of the future agricultural drought status is achieved using the wavelet-based drought temporal consequence modeling of meteorological drought with the best performing bias-corrected Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations, selected by Multi-Criteria Decision-Making frameworks. This study reveals a geographically contrasting change in future agricultural drought that indicates more intense agricultural drought in north, north-east, and central India as compared with south India. The area under drought is also expected to increase, and about 20 and 50% of the Indian mainland is expected to suffer from extreme (SSMI ≤ −2) and moderate (SSMI ≤ −1) agricultural drought conditions by the end of this century. Sub-basins lying in north and central India are expected to have a longer time under drought conditions. Thus, the findings of this study will be useful for future planning and preparedness against agricultural productivity. HIGHLIGHTS Future agricultural drought status reveals new insights into its spatial variation.; The concept of drought translation is a useful one for making use of the best potential of climate model simulations.; More intense droughts in north, north-east and central India are expected as compared with south India.; In future, about 20 and 50% of the area in India is expected to face extreme and moderate agricultural droughts, respectively.;
format	article
author	Mayank Suman Rajib Maity
author_facet	Mayank Suman Rajib Maity
author_sort	Mayank Suman
title	Assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate
title_short	Assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate
title_full	Assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate
title_fullStr	Assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate
title_sort	assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across india under changing climate
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0e27e38b3ee442afb1d563b5b7114588
work_keys_str_mv	AT mayanksuman assessmentofbasinwisefutureagriculturaldroughtstatusacrossindiaunderchangingclimate AT rajibmaity assessmentofbasinwisefutureagriculturaldroughtstatusacrossindiaunderchangingclimate
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Assessment of basin-wise future agricultural drought status across India under changing climate

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