Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO

Abstract In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that th...

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Autores principales:	Xingru Feng, Mingjie Li, Yuanlong Li, Fujiang Yu, Dezhou Yang, Guandong Gao, Lingjing Xu, Baoshu Yin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0e6984cc14404ce7bd788346cfc0f066
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0e6984cc14404ce7bd788346cfc0f0662021-12-02T17:15:32ZTyphoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO10.1038/s41598-021-89507-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0e6984cc14404ce7bd788346cfc0f0662021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89507-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that the AMTSSs in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian show significant positive correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the 1987–2016 period, the maximum correlation is achieved at Pingtan station, where correlation coefficient between the AMTSS and Niño-3.4 is 0.55. The AMTSS occurring in El Niño years are stronger than those in non-El Niño years by 9–35 cm in these areas. Further analysis suggests that a developing El Niño can greatly modulate the behaviors of Northwest Pacific typhoons. Strong typhoons tend to make landfall in southeast China with stronger intensities and northward shifted landfall positions. This study indicates that the modulation effect by ENSO may provide potential predictability for the AMTSS, which is useful for the early alert and reduction of storm surge damages.Xingru FengMingjie LiYuanlong LiFujiang YuDezhou YangGuandong GaoLingjing XuBaoshu YinNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Xingru Feng Mingjie Li Yuanlong Li Fujiang Yu Dezhou Yang Guandong Gao Lingjing Xu Baoshu Yin Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
description	Abstract In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that the AMTSSs in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian show significant positive correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the 1987–2016 period, the maximum correlation is achieved at Pingtan station, where correlation coefficient between the AMTSS and Niño-3.4 is 0.55. The AMTSS occurring in El Niño years are stronger than those in non-El Niño years by 9–35 cm in these areas. Further analysis suggests that a developing El Niño can greatly modulate the behaviors of Northwest Pacific typhoons. Strong typhoons tend to make landfall in southeast China with stronger intensities and northward shifted landfall positions. This study indicates that the modulation effect by ENSO may provide potential predictability for the AMTSS, which is useful for the early alert and reduction of storm surge damages.
format	article
author	Xingru Feng Mingjie Li Yuanlong Li Fujiang Yu Dezhou Yang Guandong Gao Lingjing Xu Baoshu Yin
author_facet	Xingru Feng Mingjie Li Yuanlong Li Fujiang Yu Dezhou Yang Guandong Gao Lingjing Xu Baoshu Yin
author_sort	Xingru Feng
title	Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_short	Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_full	Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_fullStr	Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_full_unstemmed	Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_sort	typhoon storm surge in the southeast chinese mainland modulated by enso
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0e6984cc14404ce7bd788346cfc0f066
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Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO

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