Evaluating the efficacy of eBird data for modeling historical population trajectories of North American birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and Arctic breeding species

Historic population trajectories for most North American bird species are largely unknown for years prior to circa 1970. Additionally, current estimates of population trajectories of boreal and Arctic breeding species are imprecise or biased because of lack of coverage by Breeding Bird Survey (BBS)...

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Autores principales:	Jacob Walker, Philip D. Taylor
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Resilience Alliance 2020
Materias:	boreal forest breeding bird survey christmas bird count citizen science ebird population trend Plant culture SB1-1110 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Plant ecology QK900-989
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0eabf8977ea644268ea8915ec8e4dd99
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0eabf8977ea644268ea8915ec8e4dd992021-12-02T14:14:42ZEvaluating the efficacy of eBird data for modeling historical population trajectories of North American birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and Arctic breeding species1712-6568https://doaj.org/article/0eabf8977ea644268ea8915ec8e4dd992020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ace-eco.org/vol15/iss2/art10/https://doaj.org/toc/1712-6568Historic population trajectories for most North American bird species are largely unknown for years prior to circa 1970. Additionally, current estimates of population trajectories of boreal and Arctic breeding species are imprecise or biased because of lack of coverage by Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) routes in that region. Citizen science data, in particular eBird data, could fill these information gaps. Bayesian regression models of eBird data were used to estimate population trajectories of 22 boreal or Arctic breeding species of songbirds, 4 migratory songbird species that breed in eastern North America, and 2 species of raptors whose populations crashed due to the pesticide DDT. Models used range-wide data from the U.S. and Canada for spring migration/breeding, fall migration, and winter. To evaluate the model results, comparisons were made between eBird models from different seasons, between eBird indices and area defoliated by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), and between eBird, BBS, and Christmas Bird Count (CBC) annual indices and trends. Population trajectories were positively correlated between seasons for most of the species analyzed based on correlations between annual indices, magnitude of trends, and residuals from trend models. Of the species analyzed, those most often associated with spruce budworm outbreaks had the strongest correlations between eBird annual indices and area defoliated by spruce budworm in the boreal forest. Annual indices from eBird models were positively correlated with BBS for most species, and trends calculated through the annual indices from eBird models were strongly correlated with those from the BBS for spring (r = 0.73, n = 25, P < 0.0001), fall (r = 0.64, n = 25, P = 0.0005), and winter (r = 0.81, n = 9, P = 0.0084), and winter eBird trends were correlated with those from the CBC (r = 0.64, n = 12, P = 0.0252). The results suggest eBird analyses could be an important complement to the BBS, CBC, and other surveys for assessing the status of bird species in North America, and that historic population trajectories could be estimated with additional historic eBird checklists.Jacob WalkerPhilip D. TaylorResilience Alliancearticleboreal forestbreeding bird surveychristmas bird countcitizen scienceebirdpopulation trendPlant cultureSB1-1110Environmental sciencesGE1-350Plant ecologyQK900-989ENAvian Conservation and Ecology, Vol 15, Iss 2, p 10 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	boreal forest breeding bird survey christmas bird count citizen science ebird population trend Plant culture SB1-1110 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Plant ecology QK900-989
spellingShingle	boreal forest breeding bird survey christmas bird count citizen science ebird population trend Plant culture SB1-1110 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Plant ecology QK900-989 Jacob Walker Philip D. Taylor Evaluating the efficacy of eBird data for modeling historical population trajectories of North American birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and Arctic breeding species
description	Historic population trajectories for most North American bird species are largely unknown for years prior to circa 1970. Additionally, current estimates of population trajectories of boreal and Arctic breeding species are imprecise or biased because of lack of coverage by Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) routes in that region. Citizen science data, in particular eBird data, could fill these information gaps. Bayesian regression models of eBird data were used to estimate population trajectories of 22 boreal or Arctic breeding species of songbirds, 4 migratory songbird species that breed in eastern North America, and 2 species of raptors whose populations crashed due to the pesticide DDT. Models used range-wide data from the U.S. and Canada for spring migration/breeding, fall migration, and winter. To evaluate the model results, comparisons were made between eBird models from different seasons, between eBird indices and area defoliated by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), and between eBird, BBS, and Christmas Bird Count (CBC) annual indices and trends. Population trajectories were positively correlated between seasons for most of the species analyzed based on correlations between annual indices, magnitude of trends, and residuals from trend models. Of the species analyzed, those most often associated with spruce budworm outbreaks had the strongest correlations between eBird annual indices and area defoliated by spruce budworm in the boreal forest. Annual indices from eBird models were positively correlated with BBS for most species, and trends calculated through the annual indices from eBird models were strongly correlated with those from the BBS for spring (r = 0.73, n = 25, P < 0.0001), fall (r = 0.64, n = 25, P = 0.0005), and winter (r = 0.81, n = 9, P = 0.0084), and winter eBird trends were correlated with those from the CBC (r = 0.64, n = 12, P = 0.0252). The results suggest eBird analyses could be an important complement to the BBS, CBC, and other surveys for assessing the status of bird species in North America, and that historic population trajectories could be estimated with additional historic eBird checklists.
format	article
author	Jacob Walker Philip D. Taylor
author_facet	Jacob Walker Philip D. Taylor
author_sort	Jacob Walker
title	Evaluating the efficacy of eBird data for modeling historical population trajectories of North American birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and Arctic breeding species
title_short	Evaluating the efficacy of eBird data for modeling historical population trajectories of North American birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and Arctic breeding species
title_full	Evaluating the efficacy of eBird data for modeling historical population trajectories of North American birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and Arctic breeding species
title_fullStr	Evaluating the efficacy of eBird data for modeling historical population trajectories of North American birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and Arctic breeding species
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluating the efficacy of eBird data for modeling historical population trajectories of North American birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and Arctic breeding species
title_sort	evaluating the efficacy of ebird data for modeling historical population trajectories of north american birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and arctic breeding species
publisher	Resilience Alliance
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/0eabf8977ea644268ea8915ec8e4dd99
work_keys_str_mv	AT jacobwalker evaluatingtheefficacyofebirddataformodelinghistoricalpopulationtrajectoriesofnorthamericanbirdsandformonitoringpopulationsofborealandarcticbreedingspecies AT philipdtaylor evaluatingtheefficacyofebirddataformodelinghistoricalpopulationtrajectoriesofnorthamericanbirdsandformonitoringpopulationsofborealandarcticbreedingspecies
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Evaluating the efficacy of eBird data for modeling historical population trajectories of North American birds and for monitoring populations of boreal and Arctic breeding species

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