Stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19

Abstract After several months of "lockdown" as the sole answer to the COVID-19 pandemic, balancing the re-opening of society against the implementation of non-pharmaceutical measures needed for minimizing interpersonal contacts has become important. Here, we present a stochastic model that...

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Autores principales:	Shiho Ando, Yuki Matsuzawa, Hiromichi Tsurui, Tetsuya Mizutani, Damien Hall, Yutaka Kuroda
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0eff6e40f9084f60ac70fcee282881cd
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0eff6e40f9084f60ac70fcee282881cd2021-12-02T13:24:14ZStochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-1910.1038/s41598-021-86027-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0eff6e40f9084f60ac70fcee282881cd2021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86027-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract After several months of "lockdown" as the sole answer to the COVID-19 pandemic, balancing the re-opening of society against the implementation of non-pharmaceutical measures needed for minimizing interpersonal contacts has become important. Here, we present a stochastic model that examines this problem. In our model, people are allowed to move between discrete positions on a one-dimensional grid with viral infection possible when two people are collocated at the same site. Our model features three sets of adjustable parameters, which characterize (i) viral transmission, (ii) viral detection, and (iii) degree of personal mobility, and as such, it is able to provide a qualitative assessment of the potential for second-wave infection outbreaks based on the timing, extent, and pattern of the lockdown relaxation strategies. Our results suggest that a full lockdown will yield the lowest number of infections (as anticipated) but we also found that when personal mobility exceeded a critical level, infections increased, quickly reaching a plateau that depended solely on the population density. Confinement was not effective if not accompanied by a detection/quarantine capacity surpassing 40% of the symptomatic patients. Finally, taking action to ensure a viral transmission probability of less than 0.4, which, in real life, may mean actions such as social distancing or mask-wearing, could be as effective as a soft lockdown.Shiho AndoYuki MatsuzawaHiromichi TsuruiTetsuya MizutaniDamien HallYutaka KurodaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Shiho Ando Yuki Matsuzawa Hiromichi Tsurui Tetsuya Mizutani Damien Hall Yutaka Kuroda Stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19
description	Abstract After several months of "lockdown" as the sole answer to the COVID-19 pandemic, balancing the re-opening of society against the implementation of non-pharmaceutical measures needed for minimizing interpersonal contacts has become important. Here, we present a stochastic model that examines this problem. In our model, people are allowed to move between discrete positions on a one-dimensional grid with viral infection possible when two people are collocated at the same site. Our model features three sets of adjustable parameters, which characterize (i) viral transmission, (ii) viral detection, and (iii) degree of personal mobility, and as such, it is able to provide a qualitative assessment of the potential for second-wave infection outbreaks based on the timing, extent, and pattern of the lockdown relaxation strategies. Our results suggest that a full lockdown will yield the lowest number of infections (as anticipated) but we also found that when personal mobility exceeded a critical level, infections increased, quickly reaching a plateau that depended solely on the population density. Confinement was not effective if not accompanied by a detection/quarantine capacity surpassing 40% of the symptomatic patients. Finally, taking action to ensure a viral transmission probability of less than 0.4, which, in real life, may mean actions such as social distancing or mask-wearing, could be as effective as a soft lockdown.
format	article
author	Shiho Ando Yuki Matsuzawa Hiromichi Tsurui Tetsuya Mizutani Damien Hall Yutaka Kuroda
author_facet	Shiho Ando Yuki Matsuzawa Hiromichi Tsurui Tetsuya Mizutani Damien Hall Yutaka Kuroda
author_sort	Shiho Ando
title	Stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19
title_short	Stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19
title_full	Stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19
title_fullStr	Stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed	Stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19
title_sort	stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of covid-19
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0eff6e40f9084f60ac70fcee282881cd
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Stochastic modelling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19

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