Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

Abstract Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood...

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Autores principales:	Jitendra Singh, Moetasim Ashfaq, Christopher B. Skinner, Weston B. Anderson, Deepti Singh
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0f3c331e0d0c44a3996a52e8c82a4b78
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0f3c331e0d0c44a3996a52e8c82a4b782021-12-02T14:03:49ZAmplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability10.1038/s41612-021-00161-22397-3722https://doaj.org/article/0f3c331e0d0c44a3996a52e8c82a4b782021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00161-2https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regions that have similar precipitation seasonality and cover important breadbaskets and vulnerable populations. Although a majority of compound droughts are associated with El Niños, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and cold phases of the Atlantic Niño and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) can substantially modulate their characteristics. Cold TNA conditions have the largest amplifying effect on El Niño-related compound droughts. While the probability of compound droughts is ~3 times higher during El Niño conditions relative to neutral conditions, it is ~7 times higher when cold TNA and El Niño conditions co-occur. The probability of widespread and severe compound droughts is also amplified by a factor of ~3 and ~2.5 during these co-occurring modes relative to El Niño conditions alone. Our analysis demonstrates that co-occurrences of these modes result in widespread precipitation deficits across the tropics by inducing anomalous subsidence, and reducing lower-level moisture convergence over the study regions. Our results emphasize the need for considering interactions within the larger climate system in characterizing compound drought risks rather than focusing on teleconnections from individual modes. Understanding the physical drivers and characteristics of compound droughts has important implications for predicting their occurrence and characterizing their impacts on interconnected societal systems.Jitendra SinghMoetasim AshfaqChristopher B. SkinnerWeston B. AndersonDeepti SinghNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Jitendra Singh Moetasim Ashfaq Christopher B. Skinner Weston B. Anderson Deepti Singh Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability
description	Abstract Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regions that have similar precipitation seasonality and cover important breadbaskets and vulnerable populations. Although a majority of compound droughts are associated with El Niños, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and cold phases of the Atlantic Niño and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) can substantially modulate their characteristics. Cold TNA conditions have the largest amplifying effect on El Niño-related compound droughts. While the probability of compound droughts is ~3 times higher during El Niño conditions relative to neutral conditions, it is ~7 times higher when cold TNA and El Niño conditions co-occur. The probability of widespread and severe compound droughts is also amplified by a factor of ~3 and ~2.5 during these co-occurring modes relative to El Niño conditions alone. Our analysis demonstrates that co-occurrences of these modes result in widespread precipitation deficits across the tropics by inducing anomalous subsidence, and reducing lower-level moisture convergence over the study regions. Our results emphasize the need for considering interactions within the larger climate system in characterizing compound drought risks rather than focusing on teleconnections from individual modes. Understanding the physical drivers and characteristics of compound droughts has important implications for predicting their occurrence and characterizing their impacts on interconnected societal systems.
format	article
author	Jitendra Singh Moetasim Ashfaq Christopher B. Skinner Weston B. Anderson Deepti Singh
author_facet	Jitendra Singh Moetasim Ashfaq Christopher B. Skinner Weston B. Anderson Deepti Singh
author_sort	Jitendra Singh
title	Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability
title_short	Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability
title_full	Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability
title_fullStr	Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability
title_full_unstemmed	Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability
title_sort	amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0f3c331e0d0c44a3996a52e8c82a4b78
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Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

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